Soybean prices in Ukraine are falling against the backdrop of reduced export demand

Global soybean and soybean meal prices ended speculative gains this week and even edged lower amid rains in Argentina and an acceleration in soybean harvesting in Brazil.

In Ukraine, as a result of the delay in the actions of ships to the ports of the Black Sea and the reduction of export demand, traders reduced the purchase prices for GMO soybeans by $10-15/t to $410-440/t. Against this background, processors stopped raising purchase prices and left them at the level of UAH 16,800-17,500/t or $460-475/t for GMO soybeans and UAH 17,000-18,000/t or $465-493/t for non-GMO soybeans with delivery and the factory There is an increase in offers from manufacturers.

Lower prices for soybean meal and sunflower meal have led to lower purchase prices for sunflower, increasing pressure on the soybean market.

On the part of European buyers, demand prices for soybeans with GMOs remain at the level of $500-520/t DAP - Poland and Romania, for soybeans without GMOs - at the level of $540-560/t DAP - Italy.

Since September, Ukraine has exported 1.6 million tons of soybeans, which is 58% higher than last year's rate. Considering the increase in harvest to 3.6 million tons and the export potential to 2.6 million tons, another 1 million tons of soybeans remain free, the sale of which will be complicated by the drop in demand against the background of the record harvest in Brazil.

In the current season, the EU reduced soybean imports by 25% compared to the previous year to 6.2 million tons. The share of supplies from the USA increased from 37.5% to 49% or 3 million tons, from Ukraine - tripled from 230,000 tons to 640 thousand tons, while from Brazil decreased from 46% to 28.2% or 1.76 million tons.

U.S. soybean supplies have increased thanks to its low price, so Brazilian exporters will need to lower prices to regain the EU market.

Experts continue to raise forecasts for Brazil's soybean crop, with StoneX this week raising its estimate to a record 154.2 million tonnes, beating the USDA's forecast of 153 million tonnes.

March soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 1.3% for the week to $565/t after soybean meal futures hit a high on uncertainty over Argentina's crop outlook amid forecasts of drought recovery.

Traders are awaiting a new balance sheet from the USDA, which may adjust the crop forecast for Argentina after the US MSF representative in the country unofficially lowered its estimate to 36 million tonnes, although in January the USDA estimated production at 45.5 million tonnes.