Soybean prices in Ukraine are falling amid falling demand for meal and cake

The significant supply of sunflower meal and the sharp fall in sunflower meal prices in Ukraine have increased pressure on soybean meal prices, both domestically and at the western border.

Most domestic oil processors operate at minimum capacity due to difficulties with the sale of oil and meal due to logistical problems: long queues of railway cars on the borders with EU countries and the lack of the required number of vehicles.

European car owners are afraid to enter Ukraine due to hostilities, although they are in the east and south, while in the center and west of the country it is quite safe. There are few cars with exit permits in Ukraine, so the temporary lifting of restrictions on the departure of Ukrainian grain trucks to Poland and Romania could solve the problem.

Processors in Ukraine continue to lower purchase prices for soybeans and sunflowers, but their decline has been halted by increased exports.

The sharp increase in the supply of oilseeds from producers in the eastern and southern regions, who tried to save their stocks from destruction and looting by the occupiers, brought down prices. But as the situation stabilized, demand prices for soybeans were set at 14,000-16,000 UAH / t CPT plant, depending on the quality and region, and for sunflower - within 14,000-18,000 UAH / t CPT plant. The highest prices are offered near the western border.

World soybean prices remain high. Brazil has completed the harvest, and in Argentina soybeans have harvested 46% of the area, and so far confirmed the pessimistic forecasts of key analysts. StoneX lowered its soybean harvest forecast in Brazil by 1.4 million tons to 123.4 million tons, although the USDA estimated it at 125 million tons in April.

May soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 3.1% to $ 609.4 / t on Monday, but rose 3.3% in the month.

In the United States, due to heavy rains and cold weather as of May 1, soybeans sown only 8% of the planned area, which is 5% lower than the 5-year average.

The volume of soybean processing in the United States in March rose to a record for this month 5.24 million tons.

Establishment of logistics of deliveries from Ukraine to the ports of Romania and Bulgaria will intensify the export of vegetable oils and meal, as well as allow to resume oil processing in Ukraine. This will help strengthen prices, as world prices will remain high due to the reduction in world oilseeds this season.