Soybean prices in Ukraine have increased slightly, but the market remains in anticipation of a record harvest from Brazil

Heavy rainfall in Brazil and a new heat wave in Argentina are making it difficult to predict the volume of the future soybean harvest, which will definitely significantly exceed last year's, which continues to lower world prices.

In Ukraine, export prices for GMO soybeans have been increasing for two weeks in a row against the backdrop of limited supply from producers, and have already reached $382–385/t or UAH 18,200–18,400/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Export prices for non-GMO soybeans increased by $5–6/t to $410–415/t or UAH 19,500–20,000/t with delivery to ports or the western border of Ukraine, but processors left prices stable at UAH 19,000/t with delivery to the factory.

The volume of soybean exports from Ukraine from January 1 to 22 amounted to 157.3 thousand tons, and according to the results of January, it will be significantly lower than in previous months.

According to Conab, as of January 23, soybeans in Brazil had been threshed on only 3.2% of the area of 47.4 million hectares, while last year this figure was 8.6%.

Analyst Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his forecast for Argentina's soybean crop by 2 million tonnes to 49 million tonnes, 3 million tonnes below the USDA forecast but 1 million tonnes above last year's. For Brazil, the production forecast remained at 170 million tonnes (USDA - 169 million tonnes), 17 million tonnes above the 2023/24 MY.

March soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 2.1% to $384/t (+5.2% month-on-month) on expectations of tariffs and a possible escalation of trade relations between the US and China.

China’s share of total U.S. soybean sales is only 47%, the lowest in 17 years (excluding the trade war period). In 2024, China reduced its soybean imports from the U.S. by 5.7% to 22.13 million tons (21% of total imports), while Brazil increased its imports by 6.7% to 74.65 million tons (71% of imports), and Argentina’s almost doubled from 1.95 to 4.1 million tons.

The European market is expecting a new soybean crop from Brazil, so demand for Ukrainian soybeans is declining. In the current season, the EU increased soybean imports by 15% to 7.9 million tons, in particular from Brazil from 27% to 31%, from Ukraine from 8% to 11.1%, while it reduced supplies from the USA from 55% to 51%.