Soybean prices continue to fall under pressure from good planting rates in the US

Soybean prices continued to fall yesterday under pressure from a difficult global balance sheet in the new season and pessimistic traders' sentiments about the US economic outlook due to the government's borrowing limit until June 1 and a possible US default if Congress refuses to raise the national debt ceiling.

Yesterday on the exchange in Chicago, July soybean futures fell by another 2.7% to $501.2/t (-8.9% for the month), November futures fell by 2% to $443.5/t (-8 .5% per month), and for soybean oil - by 4.5% to $1,046/t (-15% per month).

According to NASS USDA, 49% of U.S. soybean acreage was planted as of May 14, 13% above the 5-year average, thanks to favorable weather. Against the background of the delay in sowing spring wheat, the optimal sowing dates of which are coming to an end, farmers can sow the remaining areas with soybeans.

The prices are pressured by data from the NOPA association on a reduction in the volume of soybean processing in the US in April compared to March by 6.8% to 4.71 million tons and an increase in soybean oil stocks from 840 to 888.5 thousand tons, while analysts predicted them to equal to 4.74 million tons and 830 thousand tons, respectively.

In Ukraine, high export demand for soybeans continues to reduce domestic stocks, so processors were forced to raise prices to UAH 17,000-18,000/t ($465-495/t) ex-factory, while exporters are offering UAH 18,500-18,800/t or 475 -$485/t for deliveries to Danube ports.

China is ramping up processing amid supplies of cheap soybeans from Brazil, which could keep prices from falling further. According to CNGOIC (China National Grain and Oil Information Centre), during the week of April 30 - May 6, the volume of processing increased by 6% to 1.98 million tons, which is 44% higher than the first week of April and 16% higher than the same rate in May 2022

Soybean stocks in the country decreased by 4% to 3.4 million tons during the week, which is 26% lower than last year's level. At the same time, stocks of soybean processing products increased. Thus, during the week, stocks of soybean meal increased by 25% to 300,000 tons, and soybean oil by 12% to 670,000 tons, which is 46% and 17% lower than last year's figures, respectively.