Prices for new crop soybeans in Ukraine at the beginning of the season correspond to last year's level

The complete halt in exports from Ukraine's Black Sea ports has caused a collapse in prices for new crop sunflower and rapeseed, but has had little impact on soybean prices, which have been mostly exported to the EU in recent months. In addition, processors have established supplies of soybean meal to the EU and are no longer so dependent on the operation of deep-sea ports.

Prices for GMO soybeans fell by UAH 1,000/t to UAH 17,000-18,000/t delivered to the factory in a week, down 25-30% from the highs reached during the 2025/26 MY, and are in line with last year's level, while sunflower prices fell by 50-70% compared to the season's highs.

Export prices for GMO soybeans delivered to Poland in September are $460-470/t, and for non-GMO soybeans delivered to Hungary - $490-495/t, which keeps domestic prices from falling further. But if the ports do not open and the supply of sunflower, soybeans and corn on the western borders increases, then the cost of logistics will increase even more, so domestic prices will continue to fall.

According to the European Commission, in the first seven weeks of the 2026/27 MY (July 1 - August 16), Ukraine reduced soybean exports to the EU compared to the same period last year by 72.9% from 265.74 to 71.91 thousand tons. Ukraine's share in European imports decreased from 13.82% to 5.11%, so the country dropped from second to third place among the main suppliers, losing to Brazil (1.2 million tons or 85.31% of total supplies) and the USA (117.05 thousand tons or 8.32%). Total soybean imports to the EU during this period decreased by 26.8% from 1.92 to 1.41 million tons. At the same time, in the July balance, the European Commission predicted that soybean imports in the 2026/27 MY would amount to 13.95 million tons compared to 14 million tons a year earlier.

Due to uncertainty over the US soybean harvest forecast November soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have risen 4.6% to $454.5/t over the past 7 days and are trading 15.6% higher than a year ago, despite forecasts of an increase in the US soybean harvest.

High soybean prices in Chicago will continue to support world soybean prices and export demand for Ukrainian soybeans, especially against the backdrop of the shutdown of some processing plants in Ukraine.