New harvest soybean prices in the US fell to the lowest level since the end of 2020 - $406/t

Favorable weather in the spring and June of this year continues to improve the condition of the US soybean crop, increasing pressure on new-crop soybean quotes, which have already fallen to their lowest level since late 2020. Additionally, analysts' expectations for higher estimates of US soybean stocks and planted area in today's USDA reports are weighing on prices.

Yesterday on the exchange in Chicago, July soybean futures fell by 0.9% to $423.4/t (-6.7% for the month), and November - by 0.2% to $405.9/t ( -9.5%).

According to the average estimate of analysts published by the Barchart agency, soybean stocks in the USA will amount to 26.18 million tons, which will exceed last year's figure by 4.52 million tons. At the same time, the sowing area will reach 86.753 million acres, which will exceed the USDA's March forecast by 243 thousand acres.

IGC experts increased the forecast of world production of soybeans in 2024/25 MY by 1 million tons to 415 million tons, which will exceed the indicator of 2023/24 MY by 23 million tons. As a result, the estimate of world reserves has been increased by 1 to 79 million tons, which will exceed the current season's figure by 11 million tons.

Statistics Canada predicts that in 2024, 5.74 million acres of soybeans will be planted in the country, which will be 2% more than the previous year. At the same time, the area planted to canola will decrease compared to last year by 0.3% to 22 million acres, although they were previously estimated at 21.4 million acres.