The price of soybeans could fall because of increased production

2018-08-07 12:31:19
The price of soybeans could fall because of increased production

the Price of soybeans in the near future may fall due to falling demand from China and increased productivity in the United States, as well as acreage in Brazil.


Experts of Informa Economics increased its forecast of soybean yield in the U.S. in 2018 from 49.8 to 50 bushels/acre, and the crop to 4,445 billion bushels or 120,97 mn t compared to 119.5 million tonnes in 2017. The USDA in July, estimated gross yield to 117.3 million tons.


Analysts Soybean &Corn Advisor believe that in 2018/19 Mr Brazilian farmers will increase the acreage under soybean compared to the previous season by 3-4% to 36 million hectares, which will allow you to collect 121-122 MMT of beans vs. 119.5 million tonnes in 2017/18 MG.


the Reorientation of Chinese buyers with U.S. Brazilian soybeans and increase the profitability of soybean production in Brazil compared to corn led to the rise in Brazilian soybeans.


China this year would reduce imports of soybeans by 10 million tons for a low refining margin and the transition to the new technology of production of feed where soybean meal replaced with rapeseed and sunflower. Nizkorodov formula will reduce the demand for soybean meal, 5-7%, or 5 million tons.


the November soybean futures in Chicago remain at 330 $/t


Prices supports the intensification of soybean exports from USA, who last week increased by 16.1% to 893,2 thousand tons, which is 30% more than last year. China's abandonment of U.S. soybeans did not significantly affect the volume of exports. As of August 2, the United States exported 53.3 million tons of soybeans, which is only 3.2% lower than in the previous MG.


the Price of soybeans may decline in anticipation of the new crop and reports USDA that will put pressure on the prices for canola, which is now more expensive due to the reduction of the crop in the EU. However, the lack of European rapeseed processors can compensate for the EU's intention to increase imports of cheap soybeans from the United States.