Sunflower prices in Ukraine are rising following vegetable oil quotes and against the background of a sharp reduction in production in the EU

Rising prices for palm oil support quotes for soybean and sunflower oil, which leads to higher purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine.

In two weeks of speculative growth, Malaysian palm oil futures rose 15% to $1,179/t and Chicago soybean oil rose 14.3% to $1,060/t, while the average sunflower price, according to Trading Economics oil with delivery to customers increased by 5.5% to $1,350/t (+12% for the month).

In Ukraine, the prices of sunflower oil in the Black Sea ports during the week increased by another 20-30 $/t to 1130-1150 $/t, while the prices of meal decreased by 3-5 $/t to 195-210 $/t on against the backdrop of falling corn prices.

The drop in oil prices has not yet affected the quotation of palm oil, 20-40% of which is used for the production of biodiesel. However, in the future, low oil prices will lead to a significant drop in oil prices.

January Brent oil futures for two sessions fell by 5.3% to $71.8/barrel (+1.4% in two weeks).

Purchase prices for sunflower with an oil content of 50% in Ukraine increased by another 500-1000 UAH/t during the week to 27000-27500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant. For oil content over 50%, processors offer a premium of UAH 250-300 per 1%, so the price may exceed UAH 28,000/t.

Prices for high-oleic sunflower against the background of limited supply already exceed UAH 30,000/t with delivery to the plant.

In the latest report, USDA experts left the forecast for sunflower production in Ukraine at 12.5 million tons, although as of November 8, only 9.7 million tons of sunflowers were harvested from 4.7 million hectares or 95% of the area with a yield of 2.06 tons/ Ha.

USDA experts reduced the forecast of sunflower production in the EU to 9.43 million tons (10.125 million tons last year), while the European Commission estimated it at 8.1 million tons, which will be 17% less than the 2023 harvest and will be the lowest figure since 2015, despite to increase the sowing area.

Against the backdrop of a sharp reduction in sunflower production in Romania and Bulgaria, its prices rose from $450-460/t in August to $610-620/t with delivery to the factory in November.