Sunflower prices in Ukraine are rising again following oil prices, but will be limited by increased supplies from Argentina

Targeted strikes by the Russian Federation on Ukrainian oil extraction plants and the infrastructure of Black Sea ports limited supplies of Ukrainian sunflower oil, which led to the Russians' desired increase in prices for Russian sunflower oil by $40-50/t to $1,240-1,250/t FOB Black Sea, and increased demand prices for sunflower oil delivered to India by $25-30/t to $1,350-1,360/t CIF Mumbai.

Limited supply and the shutdown of some Ukrainian plants also led to a sharp increase in demand prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine with delivery to ports, which have increased by $40-50/t to $1,250-1,260/t since the beginning of the year.

High oil prices contributed to an increase in sunflower purchase prices in Ukraine by 500-1000 UAH/t to 27,000-28,000 UAH/t or 550-580 $/t excluding VAT (for 50% oil content) with delivery to the factory, although on New Year's Eve prices dropped to the lowest level this season of 26,000-27,500 UAH/t or 540-570 $/t excluding VAT.

Ukrainian farmers need to take advantage of the new wave of sunflower price increases and increase sales, as some plants will stop or operate at reduced capacity due to the risks of new shelling. The increase in the forecast for the sunflower harvest in Argentina in 2026 has already activated supplies of sunflower from the 2025 harvest, and from March, supplies of sunflower oil from the new harvest will also increase.

According to Oil World, in December 2025, Argentina increased its sunflower exports to 63 thousand tons, with high delivery rates continuing in January. The main recipients of Argentine sunflower in December were the Black Sea countries, the EU and South Africa.

According to analysts' forecasts, sunflower exports from Argentina in January-March will amount to 400 thousand tons, and in April-June 290 thousand tons, and in total in the 2025/26 MY will reach 860 thousand tons, most of which will be delivered to South Africa.

It should also be noted that palm oil prices will begin to decline in the coming days , which will increase pressure on the prices of other oils, especially soybean and sunflower.