Sunflower prices in Ukraine remain stable, despite forecasts of reduced production

Dry and hot weather in Ukraine will accelerate the start of sunflower harvesting in the southeastern and central regions, but two waves of abnormal heat have significantly impaired the harvest potential.

The first threshings in the south and east of the country show a low yield and oil content of sunflower, so there were fears that crop losses would reach 25-30% of the forecast, but processors have not yet reacted to this by raising prices.

New harvest sunflowers are offered at UAH 19,000-20,000/ton with delivery to the factory, as the prices of sunflower oil and meal are falling under the pressure of a significant supply of cheap soybean meal and soybean and palm oil on the world market.

During the week, export prices for sunflower meal fell by $10-15/t to $185-190/t under the pressure of lower prices for fodder wheat and corn. At the same time, demand prices for sunflower oil with delivery to buyers in the EU fell by €10-20/t to €880-900/t against the background of lower prices for rapeseed and rapeseed oil in Europe.

On the Chicago Stock Exchange, December soybean oil futures fell 3.8% during the week to $860/t (-15% for the month) amid an increase in the US soybean harvest forecast, which complicated the global balance sheet for 2024/25 MR.

October palm oil futures on Malaysia's Bursa exchange have been trading at 3,700 ringgit/t, or $835/t, for two weeks amid slowing exports.

November rapeseed futures in the EU fell by 9.1% to 453.25 €/t for the month, which increases the pressure on sunflower prices.

Against the background of unfavorable weather in Europe, the European Commission reduced the forecast of sunflower production by 649 thousand tons to 10.1 million tons compared to June estimates, which will exceed the 2023 harvest by 3% or 316 thousand tons. For Bulgaria, the estimate was reduced by 0.28 to 1 .8 million tons, and for Hungary - by 0.25 to 1.9 million tons (compared to 2.5 million tons in 2023).