Sunflower prices in Ukraine remain high due to limited supply, but the downward trend in prices continues

Despite the global trend of declining vegetable oil prices and expectations of increased supply, sunflower prices in Ukraine remain high due to delayed harvest and low yields.

In Ukraine, as of September 18, only 26.7% of the crops or 1.373 million hectares of sunflower were threshed, of which 2.415 million tons were harvested with a yield of 1.76 tons/hectare, while last year on this date 49% of the area was threshed, and the average yield was 2.01 tons/hectare.

Demand prices for sunflower in Ukraine remain at the level of 26,500-27,500 UAH/t or $565-585/t excluding VAT (for 50% oil content) with delivery to the factory, but some processors have already lowered their prices against the backdrop of increasing supply and queues at factories.

It should also be noted that the demand prices for oil in Ukraine decreased by $10/t per week to $1,170-1,180/t for delivery to Black Sea ports in September-October against the backdrop of a sharp decline in prices for Russian oil to $1,150-1,160/t FOB. At the same time, the demand prices for deliveries in November-December to Black Sea ports decreased to $1,140-1,160/t.

The world oilseed market expects a sharp increase in the supply of vegetable oils and meals from Argentina after the temporary abolition of export duties, and buyers are taking a wait-and-see approach. Therefore, one should not expect new active sales of Ukrainian products at high prices, which has already led to a decrease in demand prices for sunflower meal by $10-20/t to $205-210/t with delivery to the port.