Sunflower prices in Ukraine remain high, but they may decrease in July

The decrease in sunflower supply in Ukraine at the end of the season and the number of factories continuing processing led to an increase in sunflower oil prices to the highest level in the 2025/26 season of $1,335-1,340/t delivered to the port.

 

Purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine remain at a high level of 33,000–33,500 UAH/t (oil content 50%) with delivery to the factory, but the volume of supply from producers remains low.

 

With the start of the rapeseed processing season, the number of plants processing sunflower will decrease, which will reduce demand and prices for sunflower in July.

 

A lack of precipitation in the west and heat across the country could reduce the potential for sunflower harvests in regions that received little moisture. But rains forecast for next week could improve the condition of sunflower crops, putting pressure on new crop prices.

 

The Institute of Agricultural Market Conditions (ICAR) has increased the forecast for sunflower production in the Russian Federation in the 2026/27 MY from 19 million tons to 19.7 million tons (16.9 million tons in the 2025/26 MY) due to favorable weather, which will also affect the prices of the new sunflower crop.

 

Additionally, the oilseed market is under pressure from a sharp increase in supplies from Argentina, especially to the European market. According to Oil World, in May Argentina increased its sunflower exports compared to April from 171 to 187 thousand tons (45 thousand tons in May 2025), in particular to the EU - from 144 to 180 (35) thousand tons.

 

In the first 5 months of 2026, sunflower exports from Argentina increased compared to the same period last year from 87 thousand tons to 1.1 million tons, in particular to the EU - from 65 to 885 thousand tons, of which 522 thousand tons were delivered to Bulgaria, 108 thousand tons to Spain, 98 thousand tons to Romania, 84 thousand tons to Portugal, and 52 thousand tons to France. In addition, supplies to Turkey increased - from 1 to 148 thousand tons, South Africa - from 0 to 34 thousand tons, and the USA - from 4 to 9 thousand tons. At the same time, analysts believe that Turkey may re-export some of the sunflower to Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania, or other countries in the region.

 

Sunflower oil exports in May amounted to 168 thousand tons, and in total, in the first 5 months of 2026, they increased compared to the corresponding period last year from 532 to 777 thousand tons, in particular to India - from 223 to 467 thousand tons.

 

Exports of sunflower meal in May amounted to 210 thousand tons, and in total, in the first 5 months of 2026, they increased compared to the corresponding period last year from 534 to 898 thousand tons, in particular to the EU - from 439 to 604 thousand tons and the UK - from 40 to 149 thousand tons.