Sunflower prices in Ukraine continue to decline under pressure from increasing supply

The increase in global sunflower production in the current season to a record 65.3 million tons (+7.4 million tons per year), predicted by Oil World experts, should significantly increase the supply of sunflower oil, but due to Russian aggression in Ukraine and constant attacks on factories, export terminals, and ships, processing volumes are decreasing and sunflower stocks are increasing, which will be processed in the second half of the season.

 

According to Oil World, sunflower processing in September-December 2026 may decrease compared to the 3-year average by 1.5-2 million tons due to a decrease in production in Ukraine and the Russian Federation, although the EU is currently significantly increasing sunflower processing, primarily Bulgaria and Romania, as well as Argentina and Turkey, which will allow for increased supplies of oil and meal to the world market at high prices.

 

The unblocking of exports from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine and the Russian Federation may not occur before January-February, when the US Congressional elections will take place and, possibly, the pressure on the Russian Federation will increase. The unblocking of sea exports may sharply increase the pressure on the prices of sunflower oil and meal in the second half of the season, especially if the weather in South America will contribute to the development of the new crop. But this will negatively affect the prices of sunflower in Ukraine in the second half of the season.

 

During the week, purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine decreased by another 500-1000 UAH/t to 15500-17000 UAH/t with VAT or 300-340 $/t without VAT with delivery to the plant at an oil content of 48%. The supply of sunflower continues to increase, and plants have limited opportunities to export finished products, which slows down processing programs.

 

Export demand prices for sunflower with delivery to Bulgaria remain at the level of €475–480/t, but due to the increase in the supply of Ukrainian sunflower, we expect a decrease in prices in this direction in the near future.

 

In Ukraine, as of October 19, 9.077 million tons of sunflower were threshed from 4.123 million hectares or 79% of the area with an average yield of 2.2 tons/hectare (1.84 tons/hectare last year), which continues to increase supply on the domestic market.

 

In the first 15 days of October 2026, Ukraine exported 106 thousand tons of sunflower oil and 155 thousand tons of meal, and is gradually increasing the pace of exports. At the same time, since October 10, the minimum export prices for sunflower have been reduced, which allows for the activation of sunflower supplies from Ukraine to the world market.

 

Sunflower oil prices in Ukraine fell to $1,000-1,100/t FCA-plant during the week amid a further increase in the cost of road and rail logistics to EU ports and buyers. Demand prices for sunflower oil with delivery to the EU remain at $1,340-1,360/t, but an increase in domestic supply limits further price growth.