Sunflower prices in Ukraine continue to decline, but are still 10% higher than last year

The shelling of the port infrastructure of the Odessa region and the damage to two oil extraction plants in the ports of Pivdennyi and Chornomorsk led to the suspension of their work and a decrease in the purchasing activity of processors.

Against this background, the purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine fell by another 800-1000 UAH/t in a week to the lowest level this season of 26,000-27,500 UAH/t or $540-570/t excluding VAT (for 50% oil content) with delivery to the factory.

It is worth recalling that at the end of 2024, purchase prices also fell to the level of 23,800-25,000 UAH/t (which is 10% lower than now) under the pressure of a decrease in sunflower oil prices to $1,050-1,070/t with delivery to ports.

The suspension of seaborne exports of sunflower oil from Ukraine led to an increase in demand prices in India by $20-30/t to $1,330-1,340/t, and an increase in supply prices of Russian sunflower oil for January delivery by $30-50/t to $1,240-1,280/t FOB. However, the Indian market remains under pressure from increased supply of cheap palm and soybean oil, so further increases in sunflower oil prices are not expected.

February palm oil futures on the Bursa exchange are trading at 4,045 ringgit/t or $997/t (4,500 ringgit/t or $1,015/t last year).

Demand for sunflower in Ukraine will increase as oil exports resume via sea terminals, but it should be noted that falling rapeseed prices in the EU continue to put pressure on the price of rapeseed oil and reduce EU demand for sunflower oil. And the increase in the supply of soybeans from Brazil and sunflowers from Argentina in the spring of 2026 will further increase the pressure on oilseed prices.