Sunflower prices in Ukraine continue to decline, but they may be supported by increased exports

On the Ukrainian sunflower market, purchase prices continue to decline, caused by reduced demand from processors who are facing logistical problems when exporting oil and meal.

 

As of October 26, 9.833 million tons of sunflower were harvested in Ukraine from 85% or 4.44 million hectares of area with an average yield of 2.21 tons/ha (1.84 tons/ha last year), so the total harvest may amount to 12 million tons, while the USDA estimates it more optimistically - at 13 million tons. Prolonged precipitation over the last 10-14 days does not allow completing the harvest without losses and quality reduction.

 

During the week, the purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine decreased by another 500-1000 UAH/t to 14500-17000 UAH/t with VAT or 280-340 $/t without VAT with delivery to the factory at an oil content of 48%. The supply of sunflower is increasing, but prolonged rainfall is delaying the harvest, so some farmers have suspended sales.

 

Prices will also be supported by the 1% increase in the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia, which is likely to continue.

 

The reduction in minimum export prices for sunflower has activated sunflower supplies from Ukraine. According to operational data, for 22 days of October Ukraine exported 25 thousand tons of sunflower, mainly to Turkey, Italy and Austria (where licenses are not required for export). Exporters have also started to receive licenses for export to Bulgaria and Romania, which will accelerate supplies to these countries under previously concluded agreements.

 

Export demand prices for sunflower for delivery to Bulgaria remain at €475–485/t, but due to the decline in the euro-dollar exchange rate to 1.115, prices in dollars have decreased to $530–540/t. Demand prices for sunflower for delivery to Turkey remain at $600/t, but a 10% duty and a queue at the border, which increases the cost of delivery, offset the advantages of deliveries to this country.

 

The increase in the supply of Ukrainian sunflower will increase the pressure on importers' prices in the near term.

 

For 22 days of October 2026, Ukraine exported 217.7 thousand tons of meal and 178 thousand tons of sunflower oil, of which 32.4 thousand tons went to Turkey and 24.4 thousand tons to Romania. The government's decision to provide priority border crossing rights for sunflower oil and meal helps improve road and rail logistics for the export of processed products, which supports the industry.

 

Prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine fell to $900-1000/t FCA-factory during the week amid further growth in the cost of road and rail logistics to ports and EU buyers. Demand prices for sunflower oil with delivery by rail to the western border remain at a high level of $12,000-1230/t, while prices with delivery to the EU fell to $1300-1320/t due to the fall in the euro against the dollar.

 

The export duty on sunflower in the Russian Federation is 50%, so an increase in the harvest increases the pressure on prices and allows processors to obtain cheap meal and oil, which increases their competitiveness on the world market.

 

From May to October 2026, sunflower prices in the Russian Federation fell by 54% to 18–27 thousand rubles/t or $220–330/t, with prices lower in the south due to closed ports.

 

In the first eight months of 2026, the Russian Federation increased its exports of sunflower meal by 30% to 3.39 million tons, and the export price in October was about $250/ton. The main buyers of Russian meal are China, Turkey and the CIS countries. China increased its imports of meal by 50% to 1.2 million tons in January-August 2026.

 

Increased supplies of cheap meal will increase pressure on feed crop prices, which will consequently affect the prices of all oilseeds.