Sunflower prices in Ukraine continue to decline, and analysts expect some factories to shut down due to delays in oil and meal exports

Dry and warm weather in Ukraine has allowed farmers to thresh over ⅔ of the sunflower and soybean acreage, which is rapidly increasing the supply of the new crop and continuing to put pressure on sunflower prices in Ukraine.

As of October 12, 7.44 million tons of sunflower were harvested in Ukraine from 3.44 million hectares or 66% of the area, with an average yield of 2.16 tons/hectare, which increases supply on the domestic market.

The constant shelling of Ukraine by Russian drones leads to prolonged unrest, which stops the receipt and shipment of products at ports and factories and creates long queues for receiving sunflower (up to 7-12 days at some factories). Some factories are sharply reducing purchase prices, thus limiting acceptance.

According to Stepan Kapshuk, General Director of the Ukroliyaprom Association, delays in the shipment of vegetable oil and meal for export have threatened to shut down oil extraction plants in Ukraine. According to the association, the storage space for finished products will be enough for only 5–7 days of plant operation.

According to the State Statistics Service, during the first six days of October 2026, only 28.24 thousand tons of vegetable oil were transported for export by rail, which is 17.3% lower than the pace of September, and almost 97% of this volume was sent through western border crossings.

Sunflower purchase prices fell another UAH 500/t over the week to UAH 16,500–17,000/t with VAT or $320–340/t without VAT with delivery to the factory at an oil content of 48%. Sunflower prices continue to fall amid a rapid increase in the supply of the new crop and limited processing and export opportunities.

Export demand prices for sunflower for delivery to Bulgaria decreased by €5/t to €475–480/t, but in dollars - by $10/t to $530–535/t due to the increase in local sunflower supply and the gradual decline in the euro exchange rate.

The Ministry of Economy's reduction of the minimum export price for sunflower from $671/t to $389/t DAP will accelerate the receipt of export licenses and customs clearance processes, which will activate sunflower exports from Ukraine to Bulgaria.

Demand prices for sunflower oil in India remain at $1,390–1,400/t CIF Mumbai, but there is an increase in supply from the Black Sea region at $1,400–1,450/t CIF Mumbai. Prices with delivery to Turkey are $1,320–1,340/t, but the Russian Federation can quickly increase supplies and cover most of the demand, and Ukrainian exporters will not be able to deliver oil due to logistical problems.

In the coming months, we expect further deterioration in logistics, both road and rail, and the resumption of sea exports will not be possible before January - February, so purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine will continue to fall.