Sunflower prices in Ukraine were supported by a decline in harvest forecasts in the Russian Federation

This week, Russia continued intensive missile attacks on the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine, which led to disruptions in energy supply and the shutdown of many enterprises, including oil extraction plants. Interruptions in the work of the MEZs and unstable actions of ships to the ports of the Black Sea reduce the amount of sunflower processing, which does not allow prices to reach their maximum against the background of a low harvest.

During the week, purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine increased by 500-1000 UAH/t to 16000-17200 UAH/t or $440-470/t with delivery to the factory, but purchases are made by a small number of processors. Producers are currently busy harvesting corn, almost 35% of which is still in the fields, so there is no sunflower supply from them, which leads to higher prices.

The export demand prices for sunflower for delivery to Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria decreased to $540-560/t against the background of falling rapeseed prices from €590-610/t to €540-560/t DAP.

Demand prices for sunflower oil fell to $1,120-$1,180/t DAP Poland and Bulgaria, increasing pressure on sunflower prices.

But they are supported by a decline in sunflower harvest forecasts in the Russian Federation, where as of December 5, 13.7 million tons of sunflower were threshed from 7.5 million hectares or 75% of the area (15.7 million tons last year) with a yield of 1.83 tons/ha (1 .63 t/ha), and the remaining areas will not allow to thresh frosts and precipitation in the form of snow.

The ICAR agency lowered the forecast for the sunflower harvest from 16.3 to 15.8-16 million tons (16.35 million tons in 2021), but estimates may be adjusted in the near future.

The low sunflower harvest in Ukraine and the Russian Federation has not yet led to an increase in sunflower oil prices, as importers prefer cheaper palm oil. India increased palm oil imports in November compared to October, thanks to a sharp drop in palm oil prices to $1,000/t CIF-India compared to $1,280/t for crude soybean oil and $1,300/t for sunflower oil, according to Indian agencies. oil by 29% to 1.14 million tons (539.6 thousand in November 2021), sunflower oil by 10% to 160 thousand tons, and soybean imports decreased by 36% to 215 thousand tons.