Sunflower and sunflower oil prices in Ukraine exceed world prices due to low stocks at the end of the 2024/25 MY, but export demand may decrease in the new season

In Ukraine, at the end of the 2024/25 MY, there is a shortage of sunflower oil supplies, caused by a limited supply of sunflower and the transition of most plants to processing soybeans and rapeseed.

Against this background, domestic demand prices for crude sunflower oil have increased to UAH 58,000-60,000/t on FCA-factory terms, which is equivalent to $1,160-1,200/t, while export demand prices are $1,135-1,145/t for deliveries to the port in August and $1,100/t for deliveries in September.

As a result, small factories intensified processing and raised prices for sunflower (with 50% oil content) to 27,500-28,000 UAH/t with delivery to the factory.

It is worth noting that the demand prices for August deliveries of sunflower oil to India are currently $1,210-1,220/t, to China - $1,150/t, and to EU countries - $1,200-1,220/t.

Dry weather in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions may reduce the sunflower harvest by 1 million tons, but in other parts of Ukraine, conditions are favorable for sunflower planting, so the production forecast remains at 13.5-14 million tons.

Moldova, Bulgaria and Romania are expected to increase sunflower production compared to last year, but the market's attention is currently focused on harvest forecasts in the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan.

Drought conditions in the southwestern part of the Russian Federation will slightly reduce yields, but an increase in sunflower sowing areas by 1 million hectares compared to last year to 11.4 million hectares will allow production to increase from 16.9 to 18-18.5 million tons.

In Kazakhstan, in 2025, the area sown with oilseeds increased compared to the previous year from 2.89 to 3.99 million hectares (2.81 million hectares in 2023 and 3.86 million hectares in 2022), in particular under sunflower - from 1.28 to 1.77 million hectares (1.18 million hectares in 2023 and 1.01 million hectares in 2022), therefore, an increase in production from 1.6 to 2-2.3 million tons is expected. Currently, the country has favorable weather for sowing, so the harvest may be even higher.

Rapeseed crops have also been increased to 328 thousand hectares (2024 - 155 thousand hectares, 2023 - 98 thousand hectares, 2022 - 142 thousand hectares), and oil flax - to 1.35 million hectares (2024 - 972 thousand hectares, 2023 - 909 thousand hectares, 2022 - 1.41 million hectares).

The increase in sunflower production and processing in Kazakhstan almost meets China's import needs due to cheap logistics, so in the new season, Ukrainian processors will compete with Russian ones for the Indian market, as demand for Ukrainian oil in the EU will decrease due to the increase in domestic production of sunflower and rapeseed.

According to the forecast of Oil World (Germany), global sunflower production in the 2025/26 MY will increase by 4.2 million tons or 7.6% compared to the previous season, from 55.1 to 59.3 million tons, in particular in the Russian Federation it will reach a record 17.8 million tons.