Sunflower prices continue to fall despite unchanged production forecasts

In the June report, USDA experts left the forecast for global sunflower production at 54.92 million tons, which is 10% or 5.2 million tons higher than the 49.72 million tons collected in my 2020/21. However, more optimistic forecasts of local analysts increase pressure on the prices of sunflower oil from the new crop.

According to the forecast, in the 2021/22 season, global production of sunflower meal will grow by 10% or 1.96 million tons from 20.6 to 22.56 million tons compared to my 2020/21, and sunflower oil – by 10% or 1.96 million tons from 19.2 to 21.15 million tons.

Ukraine, according to the USDA forecast, will increase sunflower production by 18% to 16.7 million tons, sunflower oil – by 18% to 6.99 million tons, sunflower meal – by 19% to 6.71 million tons compared to the previous season.

As of June 10, 6.43 million hectares, or 100% of the planned area, were sown with sunflower seeds in Ukraine, but analysts believe that the final areas will amount to 6.8-7 million hectares. The weather contributes to the development of crops.

According to USDA estimates, Russia will increase sunflower production by 9.3% to 14.5 million tons in my 2021/22 compared to the previous season, and sunflower oil – by 6.8% to 5.49 million tons.

As of June 10, 9.1 million hectares or 106.6% of the planned area were sown with sunflower in Russia, which is 11% higher than in 2020. in the eastern regions, sowing continues. According to ProZerno estimates, the Sunflower sowing area will reach 9.25 million hectares, and the harvest will reach at least 15.5 million tons, while ICAR experts estimate it at 16.1 million tons.

Prices for sunflower oil of the old crop decreased to 1 1300/ton FOB, and the new crop – to 1 1200/ton FOB. However, analysts believe that at the beginning of the new season, prices may fall to F 1000-1100/ton FOB under the pressure of data on harvesting.

In Ukraine, purchase prices for sunflower after falling to 18000-18500 UAH/ton slightly recovered to 19000-19500 UAH/ton with delivery to the plant, but only a small number of processors buy sunflower.