Prices for new crop sunflower in Ukraine remain low

The shutdown of oil extraction plants in southern Ukraine and the export of agricultural products through Black Sea ports greatly reduces demand for sunflower from processors, especially against the background of an increase in the forecast for sunflower production in Ukraine, so part of the sunflower seeds this season will be exported, as in the 2022/23 MY, which will somewhat keep prices from falling.

 

The plants continue to process rapeseed, and only some of them will switch to processing sunflower in September.

 

Due to the impossibility of exporting meal and oil through the Black Sea ports, processors are forming processing programs in accordance with the potential for supplies through the western borders or through the ports of Romania. Accordingly, purchase prices for new harvest sunflower remain at a low level of 19,000-21,000 UAH/t including VAT ($370-390/t excluding VAT), since the probability of a quick resumption of the Black Sea ports and exports through them is extremely low.

 

Processors will not be able to take advantage of high demand prices for sunflower oil from India, which are $1,485-1,490/t CIF Mumbai, as sea logistics through the ports of Constanta have now increased to $150-200/t, and demand prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine remain at $1,310-1,320/t with delivery to Danube ports.

 

However, the main problem remains the export of meal, which will severely limit the processing margin.

 

Export demand prices for sunflower for delivery to Bulgaria have increased to $550-560/t, but given the increase in the cost of autologistics to $120-150/t, this will not be able to support sunflower prices in Ukraine. In addition, a good sunflower harvest in Romania and Bulgaria will restrain imports of Ukrainian sunflower.

 

The European Commission has left the EU sunflower production forecast for 2026 at 9.5 million tonnes, up 9% on last year and the best harvest since 2023, thanks to a simultaneous expansion of the area sown and a recovery in yields. Romania will remain the largest sunflower producer in the EU, having reduced its area to 1.1 million hectares, but thanks to improved yields it will be able to harvest 2.2 million tonnes of sunflower compared to 2.1 million tonnes last year. Bulgaria, with a harvest of almost 2.1 million tonnes, will take second place among the largest producers.