Soybean and palm oil prices fell on data from the USDA report

The difficult situation in the Red Sea keeps oil prices high, and new Houthi attacks on civilian ships and Iran's shelling of US bases in Iraq will increase tensions in the region.

During the week, March Brent crude futures rose 2.7% to $78.3/barrel, in line with last month's level, although they were above the psychological level of $80/barrel at the end of last year. World demand for oil remains quite low.

In the January report, USDA experts reduced the forecast of the world production of vegetable oils from 223.6 to 223.03 million tons compared to the December estimates, which will exceed the 2022/23 FY by 2.7% or 5.85 million tons. Analysts had expected a significant reduction in soybean crop and soybean oil production forecasts in Brazil, but this was offset by an improved outlook for soybean production in Argentina.

The estimate of world ending stocks of vegetable oils in FY 2023/24 has been lowered from 30.7 to 30.41 million tons (30.88 million tons in FY 2022/23), which will slightly exceed the average of the last 3 years.

March soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 1% to $1,062/t (-5.2% for the month) after the USDA report, amid a stronger-than-expected decline in global soybean production.

March palm oil futures on Bursa, which had risen for seven straight sessions, fell 1.5% to 3,800 ringgit/t or $817/t yesterday (+2.9% for the week, +1.3% for the month) ) under the pressure of reduced demand.

According to surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia, exports of palm oil products from Malaysia for January 1-15 decreased compared to the same period in December by 2.6% to 604,000 tons. This year, the country will increase palm oil production thanks to an increase in labor supply, but the situation complicating EU and US regulations against deforestation and the use of forced labor.

Reduced demand from China and India is keeping vegetable oil prices low amid ample global supply.