Oilseed prices stabilized in anticipation of seasonal supply increases

The global vegetable oil market is expecting good harvests of rapeseed, sunflower, and soybeans, as well as increased vegetable oil production in the 2025/26 MY and increased demand, so prices are beginning to stabilize in anticipation of new influencing factors.

 

At the end of the 2024/25 season, there was an increase in demand prices caused by a shortage of sunflower oil, which in turn increased demand for cheap palm oil.

 

Demand prices for Russian sunflower oil for delivery in September-October decreased by $15-20/t to $1,140-1,150/t FOB during the week under pressure from a good sunflower harvest this season, but prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine remain at a high level of $1,170-1,200/t for delivery to Black Sea ports in September due to a supply shortage. The low sunflower harvest in the south and the delay in mass harvesting in most of Ukraine due to late ripening have forced processors to increase the purchase of rapeseed, so active sunflower processing will begin only in October.

 

October palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia exchange were almost unchanged during the week and are trading at 4,476 ringgit/t or $1,064/t.

 

Palm oil exports from Malaysia in August grew, according to surveyors, by 10-15%, although at the beginning of the month they were 25% higher than the corresponding figure in July.

 

Palm oil imports into India surged to a 13-month high in August as lower prices than soybean oil prompted refiners to increase purchases ahead of the festive season, dealers said.

 

December soybean oil quotes in Chicago fell 1% to $1,159/tonne in the week (-2.7% in the month), despite increasing refining volumes and decreasing inventories, and remain under pressure from uncertainty over the Trump Administration's biofuel policy for 2026-27.

 

The NASS Fats & Oils report showed that soybean processing in the United States in July 2025 increased by 4% compared to June to 5.57 million tons, which is 5.94% higher than July 2024. In total, 61.1 million tons of soybeans were processed in the 11 months of the 2024/25 season, which is 6% higher than the previous season. Soybean oil stocks in the United States as of July 31 decreased by 1% to 850 thousand tons.

 

It is worth noting that in China, soybean oil prices remain at a low level of $1,176/t (Daylian) for September deliveries due to active soybean imports from Brazil.

 

Oil prices are stable at $68/barrel, and no sharp changes are expected yet, as US sanctions against India have not stopped the purchase of Russian oil, and Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries, on the contrary, are increasing supplies of crude oil to the world market.