Russian wheat prices fall under pressure from low demand and good winter crop conditions
Russian wheat prices fell last week amid weaker demand from importers and falling global currencies, while adverse weather slowed exports from Russian ports in the first decade of April.
According to IKAR, prices for May deliveries of Russian wheat fell by 12.5% to $236/t FOB Black Sea. And "SovEkon" reports that during the week prices fell from $238-240/t to $237-239/t. Importers from the Black Sea region are reducing purchases, and Turkey and Egypt are preparing to harvest their own crops.
In the 2025/26 MY (as of April 10), the Russian Federation exported 37.5 million tons of wheat, which is 4.7% lower than the record pace of the previous season. However, against the backdrop of the war with Iran and fears of a deficit on world markets, wheat exports from the Russian Federation in March increased to 4.6 million tons, which is 2.1 times higher than the figure for March 2025. The main buyers remain Egypt (over 1 million tons in March alone) and Turkey. Deliveries to Sudan have also increased significantly (1.7 million tons since the beginning of the season). According to the forecast of Rusagrotrans, the Russian Federation will export 3.7 million tons of wheat in April.
Experts note that the world market is oversaturated with wheat, and a large surplus is putting pressure on prices, although the new crop may be more expensive due to higher fertilizer and fuel costs.
The other day, the US Food and Agriculture Organization raised its forecast for wheat production in the Russian Federation in the 2025/26 MY from 89.5 to 90.3 million tons (excluding occupied territories), and exports from 43.5 to 44.5 million tons.
According to Rosstat, in 2025, 91 million tons of wheat in net weight were harvested in the Russian Federation (excluding the "new regions").
According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, currently 97% of winter crops are in good or satisfactory condition, and fertilizing of crops has already been carried out on 11 million hectares.
