Rapeseed oil prices in China are falling amid increasing supply, but supplies from Ukraine are unlikely to increase

In early July, spot rapeseed prices rose sharply amid slowing supplies and a shortage of raw materials at factories, but this increase boosted supplies and stabilized prices.

July is considered the off-season for vegetable oil markets, so consumers do not stockpile large quantities, but only buy what they need. In addition, the significant price difference between rapeseed and soybean oils has limited the growth in demand for rapeseed oil.

The increase in global rapeseed prices led to an increase in rapeseed oil prices, after which traders began to reduce long positions, which weakened prices.

Further increase in rapeseed supply will continue to put pressure on rapeseed oil prices, which will remain low in the near term.

Currently, demand prices for Ukrainian rapeseed oil delivered to China have dropped to $1,250/t CIF Shanghai, but they continue to fall under the pressure of increased supply from the Russian Federation.

In the 2025/26 MY, the Russian Federation increased its rapeseed oil exports to China by 18% compared to the previous season to a record 1.4 million tons, with China's share in total Russian rapeseed oil exports being 90%.

According to experts, in 2026, rapeseed production in the Russian Federation will reach a record 8 million tons (4.2 million tons in 2024 and 5.5 million tons in 2025), due to an increase in sown areas and good yields.

According to estimates by the Ukroliyaprom and UKA associations, in the 2025/26 MY Ukraine increased its rapeseed oil exports by 2.5 times compared to the previous season, from 210-221 thousand tons to a record 520-576 thousand tons. At the same time, the share of supplies to China decreased sharply, and to the EU increased to 92.8% of total exports, and the largest buyers were Spain, Poland, Bulgaria, and the Netherlands.

In the 2026/27 MY, oil exports may reach 1 million tons due to increased domestic rapeseed processing due to restrictions on sea exports.