Rapeseed prices rise amid harvest delays and production uncertainty in Ukraine

Heavy rainfall that has blanketed western and central regions of Ukraine since the weekend has halted the rapeseed harvest and heightened concerns about a possible loss of part of the crop, leading to a new wave of price increases.

 

The bill on the introduction of 10% export duties on rapeseed and soybeans has not yet been signed by the President, so traders hope that it will not come into force on August 1, so they have intensified the purchase of rapeseed for hryvnia.

 

Purchase prices for rapeseed in Ukraine have increased by 500-800 UAH/t since the beginning of the week to 23,800-24,500 UAH/t with delivery to the port, while processors left their prices at 23,500-24,200 UAH/t with delivery to the factory.

 

At the same time, traders increased the currency demand prices for rapeseed under export contracts by $5-6/t to $545-550/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, so many farmers are actively contracting for supplies.

 

As of July 24, 2025, only 1.04 million tons of rapeseed were harvested in Ukraine from 535 thousand hectares (42% of the planned area) with a yield of 1.94 tons/hectare, while last year at this time, 3.08 million tons of rapeseed were harvested from 1.09 million hectares with a yield of 2.8 tons/hectare.

 

Rapeseed yield on the right-bank part of Ukraine exceeds 2.5-3 t/ha, but heavy rainfall can significantly reduce yield, so we hope that dry weather will set in from Thursday, which will allow us to increase the pace of harvesting. But it is already clear that the total harvest will not exceed 2.8-3 million t.

 

August rapeseed futures in Paris yesterday fell by 1.8% to €467/t or $540.8/t (-0.8% for the week) amid ample supply in the EU, but November futures rose by 1.2% for the week to €486.5/t, continuing to support prices in Ukraine.

 

November canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange traded at CAD 696/t or $506.8/t during the week, losing 2% over the month amid increased rainfall and improved crop conditions in Canada.

 

Precipitation in Australia is improving the condition of winter crops, in particular canola, so the only factor supporting prices in the near future will be the results of the rapeseed harvest in Ukraine.