Rapeseed prices rise on forecasts of high oil prices until the end of the year

Analysts' forecasts regarding the continuation of the war with Iran, as a result of which oil prices will remain at around $100/barrel by the end of the year, are increasing the demand for biofuels, and, accordingly, for new crop rapeseed, which is leading to an increase in prices.

Forecasts of a slight decline in rapeseed yields in the EU and Canada support speculative demand. Against this background, August rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange rose to a season-high of €528.5/t last week, but then fell to €524.75/t or $615/t (+11% since the start of the war), although oil quotes have risen by 50% to $98/t since February 28, suggesting the possibility of further increases in rapeseed prices.

July canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange have risen 12% since the start of the war to 750 CAD/t or $543/t, while November new crop canola futures are trading 10 CAD/t higher.

In Ukraine, the 2025/26 export season has ended, and now traders are offering $590-600/t for new crop rapeseed with delivery to Black Sea ports, while in the previous season prices did not exceed $570-580/t.

In the three weeks of May, Ukraine exported almost 119 thousand tons of rapeseed, the main buyer of which remains the EU.

Traders have practically stopped purchasing old-crop rapeseed, and they plan to resume receiving it from mid-June.

The European rapeseed market remains relatively stable and the demand for the old crop remains high. At the same time, it is worth noting the downward trend in rapeseed oil prices on FOB Netherlands, where contracts for June are traded at €1,255/t, July at €1,205/t, and August at €1,145/t. Therefore, prices for new crop rapeseed may gradually decrease as the harvest progresses.