Rapeseed prices in Ukraine are falling under the pressure of cheaper sunflower and falling stock prices

Constant attacks on Ukrainian ports and ships continue to complicate exports and reduce demand for raw materials from processors, so prices for sunflower, soybeans, and rapeseed in Ukraine remain under pressure.

 

Over the past week, another oil extraction plant in Chornomorsk was damaged, where oil tanks caught fire and the plant's operations were halted. Several ships leaving Danube ports were also hit.

 

Favorable weather in Canada is allowing for an accelerated completion of the canola harvest, gradually removing the speculative premium from quotes. The market also remains under pressure from high supply this season, while prices were supported by supply delays at the beginning of the season.

November canola futures in Winnipeg fell 2% to CAD 819/t or $575/t (-2.4% month-on-month) for the week.

We expect further pressure on quotes, especially if oil prices consolidate below $100/barrel amid increased supplies from the Persian Gulf.

 

November rapeseed futures in Paris fell by 3.5% to €537.5/t or $602/t (-2.7% per month) over the week amid increased supply and deliveries from both Ukraine and European producers.

 

During September, Ukraine exported 428.7 thousand tons of rapeseed, compared to 292.6 thousand tons in August, as well as 154.5 thousand tons of rapeseed oil, which confirms the high pace of exports.

 

In Ukraine, processors have practically stopped processing rapeseed and are actively switching to sunflower, which is already offered at UAH 17,500–19,000/t with delivery to the factory, compared to rapeseed prices at UAH 19,000–20,000/t.

Export demand prices for rapeseed during the week remained at the level of $500–520/t or UAH 22,000–22,500/t with delivery to Danube ports and $500–520/t or UAH 22,000–23,000/t with delivery to western border terminals.

At the same time, supply from farmers remains limited, as producers are now more focused on harvesting late crops and postponing sales and shipments of rapeseed for export.

 

Demand prices for Ukrainian rapeseed delivered by dump trucks to the port of Constanta in Romania decreased by $10–15/t to $575–580/t in a week.

 

Prices for delivery to processing plants in the Czech Republic and Germany decreased by €10/t to €510–535/t under the pressure of falling stock market quotes.

 

The increase in the supply of sunflower, soybeans, and corn increases the demand for road and rail transport, so the cost of export logistics continues to increase.

This further reduces domestic purchase prices for rapeseed and other crops in Ukraine, and this pressure may persist until December–January.