Rapeseed prices in Ukraine remain high, but they are under pressure from lower demand

Usually, Ukraine exports rapeseed most actively from July to the end of September, as traders try to ship the purchased volumes before the start of the corn export season. However, in the current season, the number of exporters has significantly decreased, and logistics problems lead to the suspension of rapeseed acceptance by ports.

Now the purchase prices for rapeseed have increased to the maximum levels of 670-675 $/ton or 20000-20700 UAH/ton with delivery to the port, but after individual processors, the purchase of rapeseed was stopped by several other international companies due to the impossibility of purchasing large quantities and difficulties with the shipment of leftovers available in ports due to ship delays.

Local processors continue to buy rapeseed against the background of delayed sunflower supplies, and demand prices for delivery to the plant have already increased to 20400-20500 UAH/ton.

As predicted, Ukraine collected 2.816 million tons of rapeseed, of which it exports 2.4-2.5 million tons. according to traders ' estimates, another 400-500 thousand tons of rapeseed remain undocumented on the market, but due to uncertainty with prices and acceptance, they will be sold in the near future.

Global rapeseed prices also remain high. November rapeseed futures on the Euronext exchange rose 2 €/ton yesterday to 573.75 €/ton or 6 681.6/ton amid lower EU harvest forecasts.

On the Winnipeg Stock Exchange yesterday was a day off, and on Friday November canola futures were trading at 890 CAD/ton or 7 710/ton.

Strategie Grains experts in their September report lowered their forecast for the EU rapeseed harvest in 2021/22 MG from 17.03 to 16.93 million tons, which is 1.9% higher than last year, although the sowing area increased by 0.2% to 5.2 million tons, and the yield will be 3.26 t/ha.

Cold and wet weather in Canada delays the harvesting of canola, which ripened earlier due to the heat. As of August 31, canola is harvested on 11% of the area in Saskatchewan, 3.7% in Alberta, and 7% in Manitoba. Next week, rain will continue in all provinces that grow canola, which may lead to additional crop losses.

The market expects Friday's updated forecast for the USDA canola harvest, as the Bureau of Statistics lowered its production forecast to 14.7 million tons,and USDA experts estimated it at 16 million tons in August.