Rapeseed prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from declining world prices and uncertainty about tariffs

The acceleration of rapeseed harvesting increased supply on the domestic market, so processors left their prices unchanged, and exporters even slightly reduced prices due to uncertainty about the timing of the entry into force of the law on 10% export duties.

The bill on the introduction of a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans has not yet been signed by the President, so traders have reduced hryvnia prices for rapeseed to UAH 23,000–24,500/t with delivery to the port. At the same time, farmers are in no hurry to sell rapeseed for UAH, and have intensified sales under export currency contracts at a price of $545–550/t CPT with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Processors left their purchase prices at 23,500-24,200 UAH/t with delivery to the factory, and note an increase in supply, as some farmers are not ready to sell for export.

As of July 31, 2025, only 1.762 million tons of rapeseed were harvested in Ukraine from 781.9 thousand hectares (62% of the planned area) with a yield of 2.25 tons/hectare, therefore our forecast for rapeseed production in Ukraine in the 2025/26 MY remains at the level of 2.8-3 million tons.

A 4% drop in oil prices, as well as improved weather in Australia and Canada, are putting pressure on rapeseed and canola quotes, despite a delayed harvest in the EU, which is also holding back rapeseed prices in Ukraine.

November rapeseed futures in Paris fell 2% to €476.25/t or $550/t (-2% month-on-month) in the week, despite the European Commission lowering its forecast for the EU rapeseed harvest. High supply of rapeseed in the EU and sufficient stocks at factories until September-October keep physical rapeseed prices at €480-490/t for delivery to factories in Germany or the Czech Republic.

Favorable canola planting conditions in Canada are putting pressure on new crop quotes, although old crop prices remain higher due to reduced inventories.

November canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange fell 1.9% to CAD 682/t or $495/t yesterday, down 2.9% for the week, weighed down by falling oil prices and uncertainty over new crop exports. Domestic demand for old-crop canola in Canada remains strong thanks to increased processing.

According to Oil World estimates, canola processing in Canada in June amounted to 856 thousand tons, and in total from August to July 2024/25 MY reached a new high of 11.3 million tons, which exceeded the 2023/24 MY figure by 0.3 million tons due to renewed demand for rapeseed oil from the US biofuel industry.

Rapeseed prices will stabilize next week amid increased supply, but export demand will remain high, as traders need to purchase 2-3 million tons of rapeseed from Ukraine for factories in the EU.