Rapeseed prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from falling stock market quotes and declining export demand
Amid the breakdown of trade talks between the US and Canada, canola quotes fell by 6.5% in two sessions, which led to a drop in rapeseed quotes in Paris and increased pressure on prices in Ukraine.
November canola futures on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange fell 6.5% to CAD 770/t or $555.6/t (-2.6% month-on-month) on Friday and Monday due to fears that Trump may also impose tariffs on Canadian canola oil, which would collapse domestic demand for canola and force it to increase exports again.
November rapeseed futures on the Matif exchange in Paris fell sharply by 3.1% yesterday to €522/t or $609/t, responding to a drop in canola quotes and completely ignoring a reduction in the EU rapeseed harvest forecast .
Additionally, prices are being pressured by rising water levels in European rivers, which is gradually activating rapeseed supplies to factories under previously concluded expensive contracts, so demand for physical deliveries in August and September remains quite low, and buyers are lowering prices even further due to falling stock prices.
Prices with delivery to factories in the Czech Republic and Germany remain at 500-505 €/t for deliveries in September-October and at 520-525 €/t for deliveries in December-January.
Export demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine remain at $470-490/t or 21,000-22,000 UAH/t in Danube ports and $460-470/t or 21,500-22,500 UAH/t with delivery to terminals on the western border.
Processors are maintaining the demand prices for rapeseed (with an oil content of 44%) at the level of 20,000-21,500 UAH/t with delivery to factories, as supply continues to grow, and logistical problems with the export of rapeseed meal and oil remain unresolved.
Ukrainian farmers need to increase their rapeseed export sales, given that before the start of the sunflower, soybean, and corn harvest, it is still possible to find available transportation, since in September and October the cost of logistics can increase by 20-30%.
