Rapeseed prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from falling stock market quotes and declining export demand

Stock quotes for canola and rapeseed last week regained the positions lost the week before last , which slightly increased demand for rapeseed in Ukraine, although it could not significantly support prices due to the further increase in logistics costs to the EU.

November canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange have risen 5.7% over the past 6 sessions to CAD 814/t or $587/t (+7.1% month-on-month), almost completely erasing the 6.5% drop in the previous week, as the trade war between the US and Canada remains on hold and demand for Canadian canola oil from the US is growing.

Canada is actively harvesting, so markets are awaiting yield data and revised production estimates, which will have a strong impact on prices, especially against the backdrop of a lower soybean harvest forecast in the US.

November rapeseed futures on the Matif exchange in Paris rose 4.4% last week to €544.75/t or $630/t (+6.2% for the month, but only +2.1% since the start of the season) following the rise in oil and canola quotes.

In the 2026/27 MY (as of August 23), the European Union increased rapeseed imports by 3% to 530 thousand tons, although supplies from Ukraine decreased by 42% from 193.6 to 112.2 thousand tons, which caused Ukraine to fall to third place among suppliers after Australia (which exported 177.2 thousand tons) and Canada (almost 117 thousand tons).

At the same time, Ukraine sharply increased its rapeseed exports in August to 255.2 thousand tons for August 1-27, compared to 11.8 thousand tons for 27 days of July. The main buyers of Ukrainian rapeseed in August were Germany (109.2 thousand tons), the Netherlands (84.3 thousand tons) and the Czech Republic (25.1 thousand tons).

Demand for rapeseed for September delivery to factories in the Czech Republic and Germany remains low, but the growth in stock market quotes supports physical prices, which remain at 505-515 €/t for September-October deliveries and 525-535 €/t for December-January deliveries.

Export demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine increased to $480-500/t or 21,500-22,000 UAH/t in Danube ports, but the largest increase was recorded on the western borders, these prices amounted to $490-510/t or 22,000-23,000 UAH/t with delivery to terminals. There was also demand for rapeseed with delivery to the port of Constanta (Romania) by dump trucks at a price of about $580-585/t.

Processors are maintaining the demand prices for rapeseed (with an oil content of 44%) at the level of 20,000-22,000 UAH/t with delivery to factories, as supply continues to grow, and logistical problems with the export of rapeseed meal and oil remain unresolved.

Rapeseed oil exports in August increased compared to July from 15.2 to 69.4 thousand tons, which is equivalent to 160 thousand tons of rapeseed, so it can be assumed that since the beginning of the season, Ukraine has exported about 500 thousand tons of rapeseed out of the 3.8 million tons harvested.

Ukrainian farmers should intensify their sales of rapeseed for export, considering that before the start of the harvest of sunflower, soybeans, and corn, it is still possible to find available transport, since in September-October the cost of logistics may increase by 20-30%, and rapeseed prices will decrease against the background of the acceleration of the harvest of rapeseed in Canada and soybeans in the USA, especially if the harvest turns out to be larger than forecast.