Rape prices in Ukraine fell by UAH 1,500/t following the collapse of stock market quotations

Purchase prices for rapeseed for delivery to Ukrainian Black Sea ports continue to fall following the decline in stock market quotations and reduced demand from traders due to the decrease in rapeseed stocks in Ukraine.

During the week, rapeseed prices in ports fell by UAH 1,000-1,500/t to UAH 24,800-25,000/t or $520-530/t under the pressure of a 7% drop in quotations on the Paris stock exchange.

February rapeseed futures on the Paris MATIF fell 1.5% to €505.75/t or $531/t yesterday (-7.1% for the week, -0.6% for the month), almost giving up on speculative gains last month as a result of the collapse of canola quotations in Canada, caused by Trump's announcement of intentions to impose a 30% tariff on Canadian goods.

January canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange fell 8.6% for the week to 580 CAD/t or $412/t (-10.3% for the month), which significantly increases the prospects of increasing supplies of cheap canola to the EU.

According to Fediol, in October the EU increased rapeseed processing compared to September from 1.55 to 1.69 million tons (1.63 million tons in October 2023), and in total from January to October 2024 processed 16.5 million tons rapeseed (15.9 million tons for the same period in 2023), but this did not support the quotation.

Oil prices fell below $73/barrel after an agreement was reached between Israel and Hezbollah to end the fire and establish control of Lebanon and international forces on the border between southern Lebanon and Israel.

Rapeseed prices will continue to fall into the second half of the season, when additional factors of adverse weather in India or South America may arise.

India may reduce acreage of canola and mustard as high temperatures during the planting season have forced farmers to switch to crops that are less affected by the heat but give just as good returns, Reuters reported after surveying growers.

Cuts in production of the main winter oilseed crop will force India to increase imports of expensive cooking oils, including palm, soybean and sunflower.