Rapeseed prices in Ukraine received support from the resumption of quotes in Paris

After a sharp drop in forward rapeseed prices in late June, the Ukrainian market received some support thanks to the resumption of quotations on the Euronext exchange in Paris. The main factor behind the growth was weather risks in Europe, where a heat wave continues to threaten the rapeseed harvest.

 

Despite favorable rainfall in Canada and Australia, which is improving the condition of canola crops, the situation in the EU countries remains less optimistic. High temperatures in France and Germany increase risks to rapeseed yields and support stock prices.

 

On the Ukrainian market, forward prices for new crop rapeseed last week decreased to $560–570/t, but at the beginning of this week, traders increased purchase prices to $570–575/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

 

According to Ukrainian farmers, the cool spring has left rapeseed yield potential at an average level. An additional negative factor was insufficient rainfall in the western regions of Ukraine during May-June, which also limits harvest prospects.

 

High competition is expected between exporters and processors at the start of the new season. Processors will seek to supply their plants with raw materials for July-August amid declining sunflower and soybean stocks, which may further support domestic rapeseed prices.

 

August rapeseed futures on the Euronext Paris exchange fell to €502/tonne last Thursday, having lost 6.3% since the beginning of June. However, over the last two trading sessions, quotes have recovered by 1.9% and increased to €511.75/tonne or $591.5/tonne.

 

The main factor supporting the market remains the second heat wave in the EU countries. Temperatures of 40-42°C are forecast in France and parts of Germany this week. At the same time, forecasters expect precipitation towards the end of the week, which should lower temperatures and partially relieve stress on crops.

 

On the ICE exchange in Winnipeg, the situation remains less favorable for canola producers. July canola futures lost 4.3% last week, although they recovered 1.2% in the last session to 735 CAD/t or $519/t. Overall, quotes for the month remain virtually unchanged.

 

An additional competitive advantage for Canadian products is provided by the 1.5% decline in the Canadian dollar against the US dollar per week, which increases the attractiveness of Canadian canola on the world market.

Canola exports from Canada have reached 7.73 million tonnes since the start of the 2025/26 MY season as of June 14, although this figure remains 1.03 million tonnes lower than the result for the same period in the 2024/25 season.

 

One of the key factors for the global rapeseed market in the new season remains the situation in Australia. Despite the expected increase in canola area by 0.2-0.3 million hectares due to farmers' transition from grains to oilseeds, weather risks continue to increase.

 

The severe drought that hit eastern Australia in April has already negatively impacted future crop potential. Oil World estimates that canola yields could fall by 15% compared to last year, reducing production to 6.9 million tonnes from 7.68 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season.

 

An additional risk to the market remains the development of the El Niño phenomenon. Meteorologists warn that over the next 3-4 months it could lead to below-average rainfall and rising temperatures in many agricultural regions of the Southern Hemisphere, including Australia.

 

It is the weather factor that will remain the main driver of rapeseed and canola prices in the coming months, while active competition between Ukrainian exporters and processors may provide additional support to the domestic market.