Rape prices in Paris are rising on the basis of data on low yields in Ukraine

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, on July 4, domestic farmers from 12% of the area or 186.9 thousand hectares (47.7 thousand hectares last year) harvested 285.9 thousand tons of rape with an average yield of 1.53 t/ha, while last year this at that time the yield was 1.81 t/ha.

On the stock exchange in Paris, rapeseed prices have been actively growing for two weeks in a row. August futures rose 1.3% to €508.25/t or $550.4/t (+10% in two weeks) on Friday on news of low rapeseed yields in Ukraine, surpassing May's high of 495 €/ton

Even the news about the sale of new batches of canola from Canada to the EU did not stop the rise in prices. And based on the price difference of up to $70/t, the pace of canola deliveries will increase.

On the Winnipeg exchange, November canola futures on Friday rose 1.2% to CAD 658/t or $482/t (+6.5% for two weeks), in line with the previous month's level, and so far inferior to May's 695 CAD/t and the record 770 CAD/t recorded in early September.

However, the growth of canola prices is limited by low export rates and good weather conditions. According to StatsCan, in the period June 24-30, Canada increased canola exports compared to the previous week from 184 to 252,000 tons, and in total in FY 2023/24 exported 6.2 million tons of canola, which is 18% lower than the pace of the previous season.

Canada has another 1 million tons of old-crop canola that can be delivered to the EU and will replace supplies of rapeseed meal from the Russian Federation and Belarus, on which import duties have been imposed.

In Ukraine, against the background of the delay in harvesting in the central and western regions, as well as the restraint of sales by producers, export purchase prices for rape last week rose to UAH 22,000-22,500/t or $480-495/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. Demand prices for deliveries to the EU have also increased by 10-20 €/t to 470-490 €/t, but deliveries are possible no earlier than October-November, as rape is now actively sold by local producers.

Oil prices remain at a high level of $86.4/barrel, which supports rape quotes. However, Iran's elected opposition president plans to strengthen cooperation with the West, which could reduce escalation in the Middle East and, accordingly, oil prices.