Rapeseed prices in Paris fall despite lower EU harvest forecasts

November rapeseed futures in Paris fell 2.2% to €475/t or $550/t (-1.6% month-on-month) on the back of falling oil prices and increased supply of the new crop. Prices have yet to react to another reduction in the EU harvest forecast and a delay in harvesting caused by rainfall.

 

The European Commission has lowered its EU rapeseed harvest forecast by 385,000 tonnes to 18.5 million tonnes compared to its previous estimate, which is 1.9 million tonnes higher than in 2024, when adverse weather conditions sharply reduced yields. This year's harvest will exceed the 5-year average (17.8 million tonnes), but will be less than the 25 million tonnes needed for processing. It is worth noting that the European Commission's forecast is inferior to the IGC (18.8 million tonnes) and USDA (19.5 million tonnes) estimates.

 

The increase in the harvest compared to last year is due, first of all, to the increase in production in France, the main European producer of rapeseed. The European Commission together with the French agricultural statistics agency Agreste estimates the harvest at 4.2 million tonnes, which is slightly lower than the June forecast, but will exceed last year's 3.9 million tonnes. The heat and lack of precipitation in June, especially in central-western France, did not significantly affect the harvest of winter crops, which were already finishing their ripening. However, the dry weather allowed the harvest to start earlier.

 

For Romania, the European Commission has lowered the rapeseed harvest forecast to 1.8 million tons, which will exceed the 2024 figure by 682 thousand tons. For Germany, the production forecast has been left at 3.9 million tons (compared to 3.6 million tons last year), while the German Raiffeisen association expects a harvest of 17 thousand tons less.

 

Currently, prolonged rainfall is delaying the harvest in Germany, and rainy weather with short harvest intervals is also forecast for the coming days. But despite the challenging conditions, there are already positive data on yields and oil content.