Canola and rapeseed prices remain under pressure from accelerating harvest in Canada and increasing supply

Favorable weather for completing the canola harvest in Canada this week will increase pressure on Canadian canola quotes and, accordingly, on rapeseed prices in Paris, so Ukrainian farmers should accelerate rapeseed sales.

As of October 12, canola has been harvested on 89% of the area in Saskatchewan, on October 13 in Alberta - on 74%, on October 14 in Manitoba - on 86% of the area, and from October 12 to 22, the weather in the harvest regions will be dry and warm, which will allow farmers to complete the harvest.

November canola futures in Winnipeg have fallen 3.4% to CAD 787/t or $559/t over the past 7 days (-6.1% month-on-month), but are still 19% above last year's level.

The increase in the supply of the new crop is increasing the pressure on prices, despite the rather high export rates at the beginning of the season and active domestic demand. Exports of canola from Canada in the 2026/27 MY as of September 20 amounted to 752 thousand tons, which is 20% higher than last year. Oil prices remain at almost the highest level since the beginning of the year at $ 110 / barrel, which increases demand for biofuels. But thanks to high prices, farmers have already sold part of the crop, so the decrease in canola quotes will only accelerate physical deliveries of raw materials.

Increased rapeseed supplies from Ukraine, increased sales by European farmers, and increased canola supply from Canada will continue to put pressure on rapeseed prices in Europe.

February rapeseed futures in Paris fell 1% to €546.5/t or $613/t (-2% month-on-month) over the past 7 days, pressured by falling canola prices, while November futures (which expire on October 30) fell 4.8% to €493.25/t (-11.5%) amid weak physical demand for the coming months from mills that are already stocked up on raw materials.

In Ukraine, several plants continue to process rapeseed and buy it at UAH 19,000–20,000/t with delivery (unchanged for the week).

Export demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine did not change during the week and amounted to $475–500/t with delivery to Danube ports and $500–520/t with delivery to terminals on the western border, but the cost of delivery increased to UAH 2,500–3,500/t ($55–80/t), so some farmers are actively delivering rapeseed abroad by road.

Demand prices for Ukrainian rapeseed with delivery by dump trucks to the Romanian port of Constanta remain at $575–580/t, and with delivery to the Czech Republic and Latvia - at €520–525/t with delivery in November–December and €530–540/t with delivery in January–February.

Further declines in rapeseed quotations in Canada and the EU will continue to reduce demand and prices for rapeseed in Ukraine.