Canola and rapeseed prices remain under pressure from accelerating harvest in Canada and increasing supply

High rapeseed prices in the EU are contributing to increased supplies from Australia and Canada, especially against the backdrop of falling prices for Canadian rapeseed amid improved harvesting conditions and disruptions to rapeseed supplies from Ukraine.

 

November canola futures in Winnipeg traded at CAD 812/t or $571/t during the week (-2% month-on-month), but dry and warm weather forecast for the next 7-10 days will increase pressure on prices as the canola harvest enters its final stages.

 

As of October 5, canola has been harvested on 72% of the area in Saskatchewan, 56% in Alberta, and 86% in Manitoba as of October 14.

 

Increased rapeseed supplies from Ukraine, increased sales by European farmers, and increased canola supply from Canada may continue to put pressure on rapeseed prices in Europe.

 

In the first three months of the 2026/27 season, the EU reduced rapeseed imports by 14% compared to the same period last year to 871.5 thousand tons due to a reduction in supplies from Ukraine from 600 to 336 thousand tons. The main reason for the reduction in supplies was problems with shipping from Ukraine's Black Sea ports.

 

At the same time, supplies from Australia to the EU increased by 35% to 185.1 thousand tons, and from Canada - to 121.7 thousand tons (for comparison, in July - September 2025, supplies from Canada were practically zero).

 

At the same time, European processors face difficulties in using Canadian raw materials, as a significant part of canola is GMO, which limits its use. To increase supplies to the EU, Canadian agriculture is forced to adapt to strict EU certification rules. The Canadian government has previously submitted updated statistics, in particular, determining the value of NUTS2 areas for rapeseed required for calculating greenhouse gases in the production chain, which has been approved by the European Commission.

 

February rapeseed futures in Paris have risen by 0.4% to €559.25/t or $626/t (+0.6% month-on-month) over the past 7 days and remain at a high level, while November futures (which expire on October 30) are trading at a low of €522/t amid weak physical demand for near-term deliveries.

 

In Ukraine, several plants continue to process rapeseed and buy it at UAH 19,000–20,000/t with delivery to the plant (unchanged for the week).

 

Export demand prices for rapeseed decreased by $10-15/t during the week to $475-500/t with delivery to Danube ports due to increased freight costs, but remain at $500-520/t with delivery to western border terminals.

 

Demand prices for Ukrainian rapeseed with delivery by dump trucks to the port of Constanta in Romania remain at the level of 575–580 $/t, and with delivery to the Czech Republic - at the level of 520-525 €/t or 580-590 $/t.

 

Further increase in rapeseed supplies from Canada to the EU may increase pressure on rapeseed prices, which will accordingly reduce rapeseed purchase prices in Ukraine.