Rapeseed and canola prices rise sharply on heat forecasts in Canada

A U.S. Supreme Court ruling that upheld a proposal by small refineries to repeal regulations on the mandatory addition of ethanol or other biofuels brought down prices for corn and soybeans, as well as soybean oil, last week, affecting neighboring markets for vegetable oils, rapeseed and canola.

However, yesterday November canola futures rose 5.4% to 780 CAD/ton, or 6 600/ton, recovering to the price level that preceded the release of the June USDA report, after which they fell in price by 15%.

Speculators warm up prices on heat forecasts of 32-36 ^OhC in canola and spring wheat growing regions in Canada for the next 5-7 days. Statistics Canada will release a report on June 30 that may raise forecasts for canola sowing and harvesting areas in the new season, which has not yet affected the markets.

Following canola prices, August rapeseed futures on Euronext rose 2.2% or 11 €/T yesterday to 518 €/t or 617 € /t, although the European Commission raised its forecast for rapeseed production in the EU to 16.7 million tons, and imports – to 6.2 million tons.

On the Chicago Stock Exchange, November soybean futures rose 2.4% to 4 477/ton yesterday after December soybean oil futures rose 4% to. 1,310/ton. 60% of crops remain in good or excellent condition, although last year there were 71% of them. If in the east of the country the condition of crops has improved, then in the West, in the clothes of Oklahoma, Minneapolis, South Dakota, it continues to deteriorate.

Soybean exports from the United States for the week decreased by almost half, to 104 thousand tons, and in general in the season reached 57.187 million tons. to reach the projected USDA 62 million tons, you need to export 0.5 million tons of soybeans every week, which is unlikely.