Rapeseed prices are rising rapidly following oil and vegetable oil quotations

2024-11-08 11:09:21
Rapeseed prices are rising rapidly following oil and vegetable oil quotations

Increased demand for vegetable oils and rising oil prices due to political uncertainty led to higher canola and canola quotes.

 

Despite the victory of Trump in the elections and the increase in oil reserves in the USA, the January Brent oil futures for the week increased by 3.7% to $75.5/barrel.

 

February rapeseed futures on the Paris MATIF rose 3.2% in two sessions to a 3-year high of €532.75/t or $575/t (+1.9% for the week, +7% for the month) amid limited supply and rising prices for rapeseed oil.

 

November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose 4.5% in two sessions to CAD 645/t or $465/t (+4.6% on the month) following a rise in vegetable oil prices, particularly soybean in USA.

 

December palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia rose another 5.5% for the week to 4,952 ringgit/t, or $1,134/t, on data of reduced inventories.

 

December soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange for the week rose by 7.3% to $1,065/t (+12.3% for the month) thanks to stronger demand for the cheapest oil on the market.

 

According to the European Commission, in 2024/25 MR (as of November 3), the EU increased rapeseed imports compared to the same period of the previous season by 8% to 1.92 million tons, of which 1.37 million tons were supplied from Ukraine, 414 thousand t - from Australia, 66 thousand t - from Moldova, and the first 19.8 thousand t this season - from Canada.

 

Canola prices in Canada are $100-110/t lower than canola in Europe, so the volume of deliveries from Canada to the EU will soon increase. According to a study by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, in 2024/25, Canada will increase canola exports compared to the previous season by 30% to 8.7 million tons thanks to increased supplies to the EU.

 

In 2024/25, Ukraine exported 2.3 million tons of rapeseed, including 475,000 tons in October, so traders are stepping up purchases and raising prices against the backdrop of shrinking export stocks.

 

During the week, export purchase prices for rapeseed rose by UAH 300-400/t to UAH 25,000-25,200/t or $525-535/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, but the number of offers remains low.

 

An increase in rapeseed production in the Russian Federation by 15% to 4.8 million tons will also increase the supply of rapeseed oil and meal on the world market, but they will not enter the EU due to the introduction of import duties.

 

In today's report, USDA experts may adjust their forecasts for the US soybean and Australian canola crops, which will affect world prices.

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