Rapeseed prices continue to fall, despite another reduction in the EU harvest forecast

Rape futures in Paris continued to fall on Friday under pressure from increased new crop supplies and lower canola prices, not reacting to lower crop forecasts and increased EU imports.

The European Commission reduced the forecast of rapeseed production in the EU in 2024/25 by 0.5 to 18.3 million tons (which will be 6% less than in 2023), and rapeseed processing - by 0.18 to 23.2 million tons , but increased the forecast of rapeseed imports by 0.27 to 5.9 million tons.

The forecast for rapeseed meal production was cut by 102,000 tons to 13.24 million tons, and consumption by 102,000 tons to 13.14 million tons, while estimates of imports and ending stocks of rapeseed meal were left unchanged.

The forecast for rapeseed oil consumption was reduced by 107 thousand tons to 9.38 million tons, while the forecasts for production and reserves were left at the level of 9.5 million tons and 592 thousand tons, respectively.

November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange fell 3.9% to CAD 646/t, or $467/t (+3% on the month) on Friday, amid sluggish export rates and rainfall that eased heat in the prairies .

According to StatsCan data, during July 15-21, Canada exported 120.5 thousand tons of canola (170.8 thousand tons a year ago), and in general in 2023/24 MR shipped 6.8 million tons of canola, which is 15% less than the previous season .

August rapeseed futures in Paris on Friday fell 3% to €458.75/t or $498.35/t (-7.6% for the week), while November futures fell 2.8% to 480 .25 €/t or $521.7/t (-4.4%).

A decline in the EU canola crop could increase competition between the EU and China for Canadian canola in the future. Against this background, the prices of rapeseed oil in the People's Republic of China rose by 5.1% for the week.

Oil prices remain stable for now, but increasing tensions between Lebanon and Israel may lead to a speculative jump in quotations, especially in the event of Israel's revenge for the killing of 12 children in the north of the country.