Rapeseed prices are gradually recovering after falling

Unexpectedly upbeat data on canola in the USDA's August report sent canola and canola prices lower, especially amid a sharp drop in soybean quotes.

 

USDA experts increased the forecast of global rapeseed production in 2024/25 MR by 0.9 to 88.8 (88.75) million tons, primarily for the Russian Federation - by 0.8 to 5.1 million tons, but did not lower the harvest estimate for the EU and Ukraine, as analysts expected.

 

In Ukraine, on August 8, 99% of the area harvested 3.32 million tons of rapeseed, but the USDA left its forecast at 3.7 million tons, which will be 20% less than the 2023/24 FY. USDA left the forecast for rapeseed production in the EU at 18.9 (20) million tons, while the European Commission lowered the harvest estimate to 18.38 million tons, and the Strategie Grains agency - to 17.27 million tons (from 17.8 million tons in June ).

 

November rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange yesterday rose 0.9% to €457/t or $503/t (-3% for the month), partially recovering from a 2.6% drop after the report. The growth of the euro against the dollar to 1.101 limits the increase in prices in Paris and improves the prospects for increasing canola supplies from Canada.

 

November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange were also up 1.6% yesterday at CAD579/t or $422/t (-2.7% for the week, -6.2% for the month) but remain under pressure sharp drop in soybean prices in Chicago.

 

November soybean futures in Chicago fell another 5.4% for the week to the lowest level since autumn 2020 at $356/t (-7.3% for the month) amid a 4.2% increase in the forecast for the US soybean harvest 124.9 million tons (113.34 million tons in FY 2023/24).

 

In Ukraine, export purchase prices for rape with delivery to Black Sea ports, after falling on Monday to the level of UAH 22,000/t and below, rose by UAH 200-400/t to UAH 22,200-22,400/t or $465-475/t due to a decrease in supply and the growth of the dollar exchange rate on the interbank.

 

In the 2024/25 FY (from July 1 to August 11), the EU imported 0.44 million tons of rapeseed, which is 55% higher than the 0.29 million tons of the 2023/24 season. Almost 65% of this volume was delivered from Australia and only 22% - from Ukraine.

 

In July, Ukraine exported 278,000 tons of rapeseed, which was 15% higher than in July 2023, but in August it significantly increased the export rate.

 

The increase in sunflower prices, caused by a decrease in harvest forecasts, will keep rapeseed prices in Ukraine at a high level.