Rapeseed prices receive support from rising oil prices

Rapeseed quotes remain under the influence of the heat in Europe, and have now received significant support from a jump in oil prices amid renewed escalation between the US and Iran.

 

September Brent crude futures rose 8.3% to $78/barrel in two days, although they are still trading 15.4% lower than a month ago. However, the upward trend in prices could resume due to heavy shelling from both sides.

 

August rapeseed futures on the Euronext Paris exchange have risen by 3.6% in the past 7 days to €523/t or $597/t, while November futures are trading €9/t higher. This suggests that traders expect prices to continue to rise as the harvest in the EU, Ukraine and Canada continues. The forecast for rapeseed imports to the EU in the new season remains at the same level as last season, so it is now important whether Ukraine, Canada and Australia will be able to maintain supplies at the same level in the new season if they themselves increase domestic processing.

 

Rapeseed imports to the EU in the 2025/26 MY decreased by 29% to 5.4 million tons, in particular from Australia - from 3.6 to 2.14 million tons (39.7% of supplies), from Ukraine - from 2.41 to 1.597 million tons (29.6%), from Canada - from 1.13 to 0.87 million tons (16.2%), while supplies from Moldova increased from 105 to 274.8 thousand tons.

 

On the ICE exchange in Winnipeg, November canola futures rose 6.7% to CAD 784/t or $554/t for the week following a rise in oil prices, although weather conditions in Canada remain very favorable for canola planting.

 

In Ukraine, the heat has accelerated the ripening of rapeseed, and the cool weather with little precipitation that has now set in is helping to fill in late rapeseed crops, although it is delaying harvesting.

 

Export prices for rapeseed with delivery to Black Sea ports increased by $15-20/t per week to $560-575/t (oil content 42%) or UAH 26,500-27,000/t.

 

Processors maintain purchase prices at 26,000–26,500 UAH/t ($510–520/t excluding VAT) with delivery to the factory, but have the potential to increase prices to compete with exporters.

 

Demand prices for rapeseed with delivery to the western border of Ukraine increased by €10/t to €480-485/t or $550-570/t with loading on a European train, and with delivery to factories in the Czech Republic or Poland - to €525-535/t.

 

Farmers are holding back rapeseed sales in anticipation of further price increases, but the start of harvesting, both in Ukraine and in Europe, will limit price increases, especially given the fairly large supply of vegetable oils and stable prices on the world market, regardless of the surge in oil prices in recent months.