Rapeseed prices are falling amid rising supplies from Australia and harvest forecasts for Canada

Russia's war against Ukraine keeps world oil prices at $ 114 / barrel. This supports rapeseed prices, but during the week against the backdrop of improving prospects for a new harvest, quotations on rapeseed in Paris fell by 5.5% and canola in Chicago - by 2.8%. The reduction in prices is facilitated by the acceleration of canola sowing in Canada and the increase in rapeseed supplies from Australia to the EU.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, in March, canola exports increased by 41% compared to February from 608.5 to 857.8 thousand tons, which is a record for this month. The main buyers in March were Belgium (193.7 thousand tons), Germany (183.2 thousand tons), France (147.8 thousand tons), the Netherlands (123.2 thousand tons). This season, Australia has already exported 2.6 million tons of rapeseed from the projected 4.5-5 million tons.

As of May 15, the EU imported 4.73 million tons of rapeseed and canola (24% less than last year), of which 2.2 million tons or 46.6% from Australia, 1.624 million tons or 34.7% from Ukraine , 592 thousand tons or 12.5% from Canada, while in the previous season, these countries delivered 2 million tons each.

In May, MARS lowered the forecast for the average yield of rapeseed in the EU in the new season from 3.19 to 3.17 t / ha compared to April, which will be lower than last year. But due to the increase in sown areas, the harvest will grow from last year's 17 million tons to 17.5-18 million tons.

Canola sowing in Canada is slower than last year, which could worsen oilseed yields. Thus, on May 16 in Saskatchewan - the main province - a producer of canola, sown only 19% of the area sown, in Alberta - 29%, and the total sown area will be 7% smaller than in 2021 // 22 MR.

From May 17, November canola futures fell 2.8% to 1065 CAD / t or $ 830 / t, which is 83% higher than last year's price level.

August rapeseed futures on the Paris MATIF for the week fell by 5.5% to 816.75 € / t, but the dollar price against the background of the euro remained at 875 / t.

In Ukraine, the weather is conducive to the development of winter rapeseed crops, so the harvest forecast remains at 3 million tons.