Rapeseed prices updated record despite increased harvest forecast in Australia

The growing shortage of rapeseed supplies on the global market has led to a rapid increase in prices and their renewal of record values, even despite the neutral November report of the USDA and forecasts for an increase in production in Australia. The decline in world oil prices has not yet affected the rapeseed and canola markets, as increased demand for fuel increases the consumption of biofuels.

Last week, rapeseed prices on the Euronext exchange in Paris rose 3.6% from 685 €/ton to a record 710.25 €/ton or 813.85 € /ton following the rise in the price of canola futures in Canada. In just a month, rapeseed prices have increased by 12%, and since the beginning of the season - by 34%.

November canola futures on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange rose 5% last week to 1,050.3 CAD/ton, or 8 838/ton, adding 15.4% for the month. Recall that on November 2, they reached a record 1070 CAD/ton against the background of updating the maximum value with palm oil prices in Malaysia.

The Australian oilseed Federation (AOF) in its November report raised its forecast for rapeseed production in the country in 2021/22 MG to a record 5.035 million tons, which is 18% higher than the historically maximum harvest of 2020/21 MG (4.276 million tons) and 4.8% higher than the USDA forecast of 4.8 million tons. 43%.

The European Union this season reduced rapeseed imports by 40% compared to last year to 1.5 million tons, of which 1.1 million tons or 71% were supplied from Ukraine. In general, rapeseed exports from Ukraine in 2021/22 MG will amount to 2.2 million tons, which will correspond to the level of the previous season.

USDA experts in a November report lowered their forecast for rapeseed imports to the EU to 4.975 million tons compared to 5.85 million tons in 2020/21 MG due to a reduction in canola exports from Canada from 10.5 to 5.7 million tons.