Prices for new crop rapeseed in Ukraine remain under the pressure of blocked exports

After a sharp rise in rapeseed prices in the first half of June by 20% (following a speculative rise in soybean quotations), last week they fell by 10% on the Paris stock exchange. This increases the pessimism of Ukrainian farmers, who will suffer from low rapeseed prices in the new season.

August rape futures on the exchange in Paris yesterday rose by 2.6% to €442/t or $482/t, losing 6.2% of the price for the week. Prices are under pressure from the improvement in the state of rapeseed crops in the EU and canola in Canada, as well as the increase in the supply of Ukrainian rapeseed.

In Canada, rainfall is improving the condition of the canola crop, and markets are awaiting the acreage report due June 28 from the National Bureau of Statistics. Analysts estimate canola plantings at 21.8 million acres, up from 21.4 million acres last year. If the actual areas turn out to be larger, the pressure on prices will increase.

November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose 2.4% to CAD 722/t, or $550/t yesterday, little changed for the week, although they added 9.4% for the month.

For 45 weeks of the current season, Canada exported 7.4 million tons of canola, which is 55% ahead of the pace of the previous crop year.

In Ukraine, the forward prices for rape with delivery to the port last week rose to $330-350/t, but since Monday they have fallen to $330-340/t. Demand from European buyers remains low and prices do not exceed €390-400/t for delivery to the Baltics or ports in Poland or Romania. Processors offer 13,000-13,800 UAH/t for rapeseed with delivery to the factory, and farmers are ready to offer large batches, since the price at the ports does not exceed 13,000 UAH/t.

The possible blockade of the Black Sea ports of Ukraine after July 18 will greatly limit the export of rapeseed to the EU, where the crop will grow to 21 million tons compared to 19 million tons in 2021/22 MY.