Wheat prices fall in anticipation of the USDA forecast

2020-12-09 12:04:40
Machine translation
Wheat prices fall in anticipation of the USDA forecast

Thursday will be released once the balance of supply and demand of wheat by the USDA, which is likely to increase the production estimates and ending stocks of wheat in the current season, which will accelerate the price drop.


it is Expected that the crop forecast for Australia will increase more than the cut for Argentina and, possibly, will increase production estimate for Russia, with the result that ending stocks will grow by 2 million tons to a record 322 million tonnes.


the Projected increase in estimated export of wheat from Australia, Russia and India offset the reduction in exports from Argentina. Experts of the stock exchange in Rosario believe that in 2020/21 MG Argentina exports 10 million tons of wheat, of which has been contracted to 5.85 million tonnes, while in November, the USDA estimated exports at 12.5 million tons.


Yesterday's speculative jump in prices did not continue. On the eve of the release of the USDA report, investors have been technical sales. Also on the market pushing the decline in export demand for U.S. wheat.


the March wheat futures in the U.S. fell:


3.12 $/t to 197,31 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city

2.02 $/t to 199,61 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

  • by 2.76 $/t to 209,43 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago


the price of French wheat after a 7-day fall to 2-month-old finally turned up thanks to stable demand from China and problems with winter crops in Russia.



  • the March futures for milling wheat on MATIF rose by 0.25 €/t to 201,5 €/t or 244,11 $/t


the Price for black sea wheat remain at the level of $250/MT FOB, while European wheat due to the growth of the Euro against the dollar rose to 255 $/t FOB.


In Ukraine, purchasing prices for wheat, after export prices and the stronger exchange rate of the hryvnia dropped to 235 to 238 $/t or 8000-8100 UAH/t with delivery to the port, with the result that processors have lowered prices to 7700-7800 UAH/t with delivery to the plant. The good condition of winter crops improves the future prospects of the harvest, activates the sale by the manufacturers that understand that the spring rates may be lower.

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