Wheat prices froze in anticipation of a decision on the operation of the grain corridor
For the second week now, Russia has been intensively shelling Ukraine with missiles and kamikaze drones, which has led to restrictions on the operation of grain terminals, especially after hitting the oil terminal in Mykolaiv on Sunday.
Traders have almost stopped buying in the Black Sea ports of Ukraine, and active demand remains only in the Danube ports.
Exporters reduced prices for food wheat 2, 3 kl with delivery to Odesa ports to 7800-8100 UAH/t or $210-215/t, while for deliveries to Danube ports they amount to 8500-8800 UAH/t or $220-225 /t, and for fodder wheat - 6900-7200 UAH/t, although at the end of the week the prices reached 7600-8950 UAH/t, 7550-8800 UAH/t and 6200-7700 UAH/t or $170-190/t SRT- port.
From October 1 to 17, Ukraine exported almost 1 million tons of wheat, and in total in the season - 4 million tons, out of the 11 million tons predicted by the USDA for 2023/23 MR. However, the export forecast may be reduced, since the USDA harvest estimate is 20.5 million t significantly exceeds the forecast of MSG of Ukraine of 19.2 million t.
Continuation of the grain corridors activates the wheat market in Ukraine, so processors are increasing the purchase prices for food wheat to UAH 6,800-7,000/ton with delivery to the mill.
Wheat quotations on world exchanges on Thursday and Friday decreased by 2-3.4% under the pressure of data from the October USDA report. On Monday, the prices of American wheat remained stable, while European and Black Sea wheat continued to fall in anticipation of news about the further operation of grain corridors in Ukraine.
Yesterday, wheat prices had the following dynamics:
- December SRW soft winter wheat futures in Chicago rose 0.1% or $0.45/t to $316.4/t,
- December HRW hard winter wheat futures remained at $349.8/t in Kansas City,
- December futures for HRS durum wheat in Minneapolis remained at $351/t,
- Chicago November Black Sea wheat futures fell 0.5% or $1.75/t to $327.75/t,
- December wheat futures on Paris Euronext fell 1.3% or €4.5/t to €346.25/t or $340.25/t.
69% of the planned acreage is sown with winter wheat in the USA, which is 1% higher than the 5-year average and puts pressure on the prices of the future crop. The export of wheat from the USA for the week decreased by 2.6 times to 231.8 thousand tons, and in general in the season reached 9.36 million tons, which corresponds to last year's level.
According to StoneX, Philippine importers purchased 165,000 t of Australian feed wheat at an international tender at $345/t C&F for January-March delivery.
On October 21, the Turkish TMO will hold a tender for the supply of 495,000 tons of food wheat, which will demonstrate the level of prices for Black Sea wheat in comparison with European wheat.
