Wheat prices remain under pressure from increasing supply and low export demand

Against the backdrop of low importer activity and forecasts of an increase in the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation, as well as an increase in the forecast for world wheat production by IGC experts, wheat quotes on world exchanges remained unchanged during the week, and in Ukraine, the increase in supply stopped the growth of export prices.

 

As of August 21, 2025, 21 million tons of wheat were threshed in Ukraine from 4.873 million hectares (98% of the planned area) with a yield of 4.31 tons/hectare, which is 3.7% lower than last year.

 

In the 2025/26 MY, Ukraine exported 2.03 million tons of wheat (3.09 million tons for the same period last year), in particular, for 22 days of August - 1.27 (1.54) million tons.

 

In Black Sea ports, export demand prices for food wheat remained at the level of 10,700–10,900 UAH/t or 224–230 $/t, and for feed wheat they increased to 9,500–9,700 UAH/t or 200–210 $/t.

 

Demand prices for Russian wheat (12.5% protein) for August-September delivery fell by another $7/t to $235/t FOB in a week, which increases the pressure on wheat prices in Ukraine and the EU. According to Rusagrotrans, prices for French wheat in a week decreased by $5/t to $232/t, Romanian - by $1/t to $242/t, Argentine - by $3/t to $231/t, Australian - by $1/t to $254/t, while prices for American wheat increased by $1/t to $219/t FOB.

 

As of August 24, 98% of winter wheat in the United States has been threshed, and 53% of spring wheat has been threshed (54% on average over 5 years).

 

Wheat exports from the US for the period August 14-21 reached a multi-year maximum of 946 thousand tons, and in total for the season (from June 1) amounted to 5.76 million tons, which is 11% higher than last year's pace, but this did not support the quotations much.

 

During the week, September futures:

• increased by 0.8% to $186.2/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago,
• fell by 1.9% to $182.5/t - for HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• increased by 0.7% to $210.4/t - for HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• Wheat futures on the Euronext Paris exchange fell by 0.6% to €195/t or $226.7/t.

 

Stock market prices are at seasonal lows, putting pressure on prices in physical markets. They are also being pressured by rising supply, especially amid limited demand from importers.