Wheat prices resumed rising amid blocking exports from Ukraine and deteriorating winter conditions in the United States

Since the beginning of the week, wheat futures in the US have risen by 5-6% amid deteriorating winter wheat crops, as well as the realization that the war in Ukraine will continue for a long time, so Ukrainian exports will remain blocked.

On Monday, the US IAU released a report that found that the number of winter wheat crops in the United States in good or excellent condition was only 30%, up from 53% last year.

Traders have intensified their purchases of both old and new wheat, so prices for May and July futures are almost the same.

Wheat exports from the United States for the week of March 25-31 fell by 15% to 297.3 thousand tons, and in total in the season amounted to 17.194 million tons, which is 22% lower than last year.

Due to low export rates, Friday's USDA report is expected to increase US wheat stocks.

May futures rose yesterday:

• 3.5% or $ 12.86 / t to $ 384.1 / t for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+ 6.2% since the beginning of the week),
• 4.3% or $ 16.53 / t to $ 397.8 / t for winter hardwood HRW wheat in Kansas City (+ 6.8%),
• by 2.4% or $ 9.74 / t to $ 408.5 / t on durum HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+ 4.4%),
• by 0.2% or $ 1 / t to $ 393.25 / t for Black Sea wheat in Chicago (+ 1%).

Russia's invasion of Ukraine remains the main reason for high world grain prices, which is enjoyed by India, which has accumulated significant state reserves of expensive wheat. In the 2021/22 MY, which ended on March 31, India exported a record 7.85 million tons of wheat, almost 4 times more than 2.1 million tons exported in the 2020/21 season.

At the end of March, India announced that it plans to take advantage of reduced competition in the world market and export 11-12 million tons of wheat in the 2023 marketing year. For the sixth year in a row, India's wheat production will exceed domestic consumption, forcing traders to boost export sales.

Last week, the state agency of Saudi Arabia SAGO contracted 625 thousand tons of wheat produced in the EU, Australia, North and South America at an average price of $ 422.47 / ton C&F with delivery in September - November. This shows that buyers do not believe in lower wheat prices next season.