Wheat prices in Ukraine rise amid limited supply, but stock futures fall again

Prolonged rains in Ukraine are delaying the harvest of late crops and reducing grain sales by farmers. Producers fear additional losses in sunflower and soybean crops, and are also forced to complete winter sowing at suboptimal times.

 

Domestic export demand for wheat continues to grow, supporting prices. However, a new decline in global prices is limiting further growth.

 

During the week, export demand prices for food wheat increased by 50–100 UAH/t to 10,300–10,500 UAH/t (or $218–221/t), and for feed wheat by 100–150 UAH/t, to 9,650–9,800 UAH/t (or $206–207/t) with delivery to Black Sea ports.

 

As of October 6, wheat exports from Ukraine since the beginning of the 2025/26 marketing year reached 4.79 million tons, which is 41% less than in the same period last year (6.8 million tons) and is 31% of the projected export volume for the season.

 

The global market continues to show a trend of increasing supply and weak demand. This is driven by expectations of high harvests in Canada, Argentina and Australia, as well as lower corn prices in the US, which is putting pressure on the wheat market.

 

Stock quotes decreased during the week:

• SRW wheat (Chicago) — by 1.3%, to $188.4/t;
• HRW wheat (Kansas City) — up 2.6%, to $182.1/t;
• HRS wheat (Minneapolis) — up 2%, to $204.9/t;
• Wheat Euronext (Paris) — up 0.4%, to €187.75/t or $219.8/t.

Wheat exports from the US since the beginning of the season (June 1, 2025/26 MY) reached 10.18 million tons, which is 16.7% more than last year, or 44% of the projected export volume.

 

On October 3, the General Authority for Food Security of Saudi Arabia (GFSA) purchased 455,000 tons of wheat (out of a planned 420,000 tons) at an average price of $263.38/ton C&F, mainly of Russian and Black Sea origin, through an international tender. Deliveries are scheduled for December 2025 - January 2026.

 

This level of purchase prices indicates that wheat quotations in the coming months will remain at the level of $225–230/t FOB Black Sea, which will continue to limit the potential for price growth in Ukraine.