Wheat prices in Ukraine in the new season will be under pressure from falling demand from the EU and increased competition with Russian wheat on the world market

After the European Union restores quotas for the import of certain types of agricultural products from Ukraine on June 6, in the 2025/26 MY, domestic traders will have to look for new sales markets for approximately 3-3.5 million tons of grain, where the presence of Russian wheat has significantly increased in recent years. This was stated by ASAP Agri's Head of Editorial Content and Analytics Viktoriya Blazhko at Grain Ukraine 2025, Latifundist.com reports.

She said that countries that are potential buyers of Ukrainian wheat can be divided into the following groups:

• Stable markets with high demand . This group includes countries in North Africa (Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria) and Southeast Asia, which have traditionally purchased Ukrainian grain and have shown steady growth in demand in recent years. Algeria, which previously focused on French wheat but has recently begun to make large purchases of Ukrainian grain, has become particularly active.
• Promising markets with variable demand . These include countries that occasionally buy Ukrainian wheat. For example, Turkey, where up to 1 million tons can be exported after the removal of import restrictions. Or Pakistan, which usually buys grain either from the Russian Federation or from Ukraine.
• Risky directions . The European Union has become a less predictable market for Ukrainian wheat after the return of duty-free import quotas of only 580,000 tons until the end of the year on June 6, which is significantly less than needed.

Additionally, the prices of the new harvest will be pressured by an increase in initial wheat stocks in Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and the EU due to a sharp reduction in export rates at the end of the 2024/25 MY.

Ukraine exported only 14.7 million tons of wheat in the 2024/25 MY (as of the end of May), and export demand for the old crop is almost non-existent, so the USDA forecast of 16 million tons is unlikely to be achieved.

Demand prices for new crop wheat are now $15-25/t lower than they were in April.

It should be noted that due to the drop in demand, wheat exports from the Russian Federation also decreased sharply in May and totaled 40.8 million tons in the 2024/25 MY, which is 10.2 million tons less than the corresponding figure last year. Therefore, according to experts, by the end of the season it will not exceed 41.5 million tons (compared to 55.5 million tons in the 2023/2024 MY and the USDA forecast of 43.5 million tons).

In the 2024/25 MY, Russian wheat accounted for 70-90% of imports by Turkey, Libya, Israel, Kenya, and Egypt. Thus, its share in Turkey's purchases increased from 85% to 96%, Libya's from 94% to 95%, and Israel's from 73% to 87%. In Egypt, this figure remains at 71%, and in Kenya it decreased from 82% to 74%. The share of Russian wheat in Algeria's and Saudi Arabia's purchases decreased slightly.