Wheat prices in Ukraine reached 11,000 UAH/t, although world prices began to fall

Restraining wheat sales by farmers amid dry weather is leading to further increases in demand and prices from exporters trying to form export shipments of grain.

 

During the week, export demand prices for Ukrainian wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports increased by $2-4/t:

• for food – up to $228-232/t or 10900-11100 UAH/t,
• for feed – up to $224-225/t or 10,550-10,700 UAH/t.

 

Due to the decrease in the cost of international freight and transshipment at ports, traders increased demand prices by $10-15/t during the month, although the speculative increase in world quotes caused by frosts in the USA amounted to only $5-10/t.

 

Cold, dry weather persists in Ukraine, and no significant precipitation is forecast in the near future, which negatively affects the resumption of winter crop vegetation. The pace of wheat exports from Ukraine continues to fall in February: 939 thousand tons were shipped in 24 days (2.05 million tons in the same period last year), and in total, 11.74 million tons have already been exported in the 2024/25 MY (11.27 million tons on this date last year).

 

After a speculative rise in stock prices last week, yesterday quotes fell another 1-2.2% on data on improving crop conditions in Texas, where the number of winter wheat in good or excellent condition increased by 4% to 37% over the week, although in Oklahoma it decreased by 6% to 34%. Starting in April, the US will begin issuing weekly crop condition reports.

 

March wheat futures fell yesterday:
• by 1.9% to $212.8/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-3.6% per week),
• by 2.2% to $219.2/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-4%),
• by 1.7% to $228.4/t – for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-2%),
• by 1% to 224.5 €/t or 238.1 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-2.2%).

 

US wheat exports rose 50% to 375,500 tonnes between February 14 and 21, but this did not support prices. In total, the US exported 15.23 million tonnes of wheat in the 2024/25 MY, which is 20.7% higher than last year, but the pace of deliveries is gradually slowing.

 

According to Rusagrotrans, export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein and delivery in February-March increased by $7/t to $250-252/t FOB in a week due to winning the tender in Saudi Arabia, as well as against the backdrop of an increase in prices for wheat from other countries by $1-2/t, in particular Romanian - up to $250/t FOB, American - up to $252/t FOB, Argentine - up to $239/t FOB. At the same time, French wheat fell in price by $2/t to $244/t FOB.

 

Large European wheat stocks and improving weather conditions in the US, EU and Russia will continue to reduce demand and prices on the world market. And rising freight costs may limit prices for Ukrainian wheat in the coming months.